Commentary for Friday, Nov 8, 2024 (www.golddealer.com) – Today gold closed down $10.90 at $2687.50, and silver closed down $0.41 at $31.36. Today gold traded between $2680.00 and $2700.00 as investors continue to worry about Wednesday’s significant drop in prices. In my opinion that drop looks more like profit taking than uncertainty over the Trump presidency. But there is no doubt that traders are nervous. The world is trying to stay ahead of the geopolitical changes expected from the Republicans as they move into the White House. As the rumor mill heats up, I suggest that most post-election rhetoric be ignored. The reason being that Congressional spending has always been a fiasco promising the “free lunch” to anyone who would listen. That is the reason our financial mess never gets any better. Higher interest rates do slow inflation, but they also slow growth which can lead to recession. My hat is off to Chief Powell who has done a remarkable job at making this Rube Goldberg function in the short term. But in the end the best investors can expect is more inflation as the government continues to print too much fiat money relative to economic growth. Do not be surprised to see higher gold and silver prices in 2025, and perhaps even fresh record prices. Last Friday gold closed at $2738.60 / silver at $32.54. On the week gold was down $51.10, and silver was down $1.18.
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On Monday the price of gold was unimpressive, trading between $2732.00 and $2748.00, finishing the day almost unchanged. Which is interesting because if the public is worried about the election outcome their concern is not pushing the price needle one way or the other. I have been saying for some time now that the outcome of this election for President is overhyped relative to the price of the metals. Either in the short term or in 2025. Gold and silver will move higher if the Fed remains dovish and will move lower if they decide that “sticky inflation” needs more work. Interest rates will be the deciding factor as to who smiles first, the bulls or the bears. So be patient, remember that everything you might see or hear is hype in these final days of this important vote. You will have plenty of time to make any course adjustments in 2025. And you will be better informed to make those changes when you know who is going to win.
Good luck to both parties. The great thing about our political system is that it works well enough if partisan tampering is avoided. Finally, sidestep the “white noise” created by the FOMC meeting this week. It will begin on Tuesday, and the results will be better understood after the markets close on Wednesday. Most expect a quarter point cut in interest rates, which is no big deal and will likely not create further crosswinds for either gold or silver.
Reuters (Anjana Anil) – Gold rises as US election jitters, Fed policy meeting loom – “Gold prices rose on Monday, as U.S. election uncertainty loomed with markets pricing in chances of a contested result and political tensions, while investors also kept a close tab on the Federal Reserve policy meeting later this week. Spot gold rose 0.4% to $2,745.29 per ounce as of 9:45 a.m. ET (1445 GMT), having hit a record high of $2,790.15 last Thursday. U.S. gold futures gained 0.2% to $2,754.80. The U.S. presidential election is on Tuesday, with opinion polls showing Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump neck and neck in the race to the White House. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted last month found worries that the U.S. could see a repeat of the unrest that followed Trump’s 2020 election defeat, when his false claim that his loss was the result of fraud prompted hundreds to storm the U.S. Capitol. “If Trump wins, I think, gold does well here. We’re probably worried a little bit more about inflation with all the tariffs that he’s talking about,” said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities. Also on the radar this week is the Fed’s interest rate decision on Thursday, with markets widely anticipating a quarter-point cut. Gold is seen as a hedge against economic and political uncertainty and tends to thrive when interest rates are low. “I guess the driver for gold this week will be US elections. The Fed cut is unlikely to trigger much movements in my view, as the bank is likely to signal further cuts in line with market expectations,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. The dollar index (.DXY), was down 0.6%, hitting a two-week low. A weaker U.S. currency makes dollar-priced gold more appealing for buyers holding other currencies. Spot silver rose 1.1% to $32.77 an ounce after touching a more than two-week low at $32.26. Platinum firmed 0.1% to $993.68 while palladium lost 1.8% to $1,078.01.”
On the day gold closed down $2.50 at $2736.10, and silver closed down $0.06 at $32.48.
On Tuesday the price of gold moved between $2732.00 and $2748.00 with little conviction finishing the day barely in the green even as the election draws near and tension rises over possible outcomes. I still believe this election has been overamped relative to pricing in the metals. Investors may even be surprised to find that the price of gold and silver move higher no matter who makes the White House. The Dollar Index this past week has moved from highs (104.50) through today’s lows (103.75), reflecting the expected quarter point rate cut on Thursday. If interest rates continue lower next year, you may even see fresh record prices. Still, the price of gold has turned flat around $2738.00 since the 22nd of October, suggesting a bit of cooling which may be the result of physical selling at these record levels. The bears have not vanished, they are just sidelined, waiting for the fundamentals to switch sides, which they often do so let’s not get too carried away with bullish and election rhetoric.
Reuters (Anjana Anil) – Gold rises as markets gird for US election outcome – “Gold prices rose on Tuesday as investors braced for political tensions after opinion polls showed Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are neck and neck in the U.S. presidential election where chances of a contested result are high. Spot gold gained 0.4% to $2,748.02 an ounce by 9:40 a.m. ET (1440 GMT). Gold futures also rose 0.4% to $2,757.40. Gold is supported by “the uncertainty of the elections. Part of it is what happens if things don’t go so smooth, part of it is the possibility of tariffs, some kind of economic changes,” said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. With a dead heat between Republican former president Trump and Democratic vice president Harris and control of the U.S. Congress also at stake, investors are particularly nervy about an unclear or contested result, especially if it fuels unrest. “Should the election result be uncertain for days or even weeks, gold would benefit from the resulting uncertainty,” Commerzbank said in a note. Trump has repeatedly said any defeat could only stem from widespread fraud, echoing his false claims from 2020. The winner may not be known for days if the margins in key states are as slim as expected. Gold should ultimately reach $2,800 “once the dust settles” after the election, Exinity Group chief market analyst Han Tan said. Elsewhere, markets widely anticipate a quarter-point cut from the Federal Reserve on Thursday, a further reduction to U.S. interest rates this year after a big cut in September. Bullion is traditionally seen as a hedge against economic and political uncertainty and tends to thrive when interest rates are low. This has helped the metal rise over 33% so far this year. Spot silver rose 1.1% to $32.82 an ounce, platinum added 1.7% to $1,000.70 and palladium was up 1.3% at $1,088.65. A private sector survey in top metals consumer China showed services activity expanded at its fastest pace in three months in October.”
On the day gold closed up $4.20 at $2740.30, and silver closed up $0.18 at $32.66.
On Wednesday gold was in a freefall as Trump was elected President of the United States. Prices dipped $80.00 before traders took advantage and bought the dip as gold approached $2650.00. I’m not that surprised that Trump won, but it’s surprising how badly Harris lost in a race projected to be neck and neck Tuesday night. Fake news or did Harris misread her base?
At any rate, both gold and silver moved strongly lower on the Trump victory. Missed the boat on that one. I figured safe haven demand would be sufficient to support gold and silver at the upper end of their current price ranges. Both metals fell out of bed for two reasons. First, traders believed there will be less risk aversion. And second, the Trump win created a much stronger dollar which scared the bulls and encouraged bearish sentiment. Considering this landslide victory and the Republicans winning the House and Senate, what the Fed does this week relative to interest rate policy will not have much effect on the price of gold or silver in my opinion.
The important point at this juncture is whether traders will buy this dip or step aside and wait for the smoke to clear. The faster they take advantage of this weakness the better for what I believe is still the growing bullish sentiment. It might take some time for the metals to stabilize here, but not much time in my opinion. Physical investors should keep their eyes on the bigger picture. The Trump win has delayed new record prices for both gold and silver in the short term. But don’t be surprised to see fresh interest sooner than later and record highs next year.
FXEmpire (James Herczyk) – Gold Plunges as Dollar Surges on Trump Victory, Market Eyes Fed Rate Decision – “Gold prices are falling sharply on Wednesday, as traders lock in profits amid a stronger U.S. dollar and surging Treasury yields following Donald Trump’s projected return to the White House. The sell-off in gold pushed prices through a key technical support level of $2,708.76, shifting the trend downward and further pressured the metal by breaking below the $2,697.28 pivot level. Gold now faces a critical test near the 50-day moving average at $2,636.66 as markets await the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement on Thursday. Trump Victory Pushes Dollar Higher, Gold Under Pressure – The dollar’s rally to a four-month high has added significant pressure to gold. Fueled by Trump’s projected victory and Republican gains in Congress, the greenback appreciated 1.4%, while the ICE U.S. Dollar Index marked its strongest level since July. The dollar also saw notable gains against the Mexican peso, Swiss franc, and other major currencies, making gold more expensive for international buyers and reducing its appeal as a non-yielding asset. In response to Trump’s win, investors expect a renewed focus on tariffs and fiscal stimulus, both of which could bolster the dollar further if implemented. Analysts like Paul Christopher of Wells Fargo note that potential trade levies might boost domestic business activity, which could strengthen the dollar, pressuring gold prices further. Treasury Yields Surge as Bond Markets Brace for Inflationary Policies – Bond markets reacted sharply to Trump’s election, with the 10-year Treasury yield leaping to 4.47%, its highest since July. Rising yields reduce gold’s appeal by increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets like gold. The market also anticipates inflationary pressures from potential fiscal spending and tax cuts, which Republicans could advance in a Congress under their control. According to finance professor Jeremy Siegel, a Republican sweep may bring economic growth policies that drive bond yields higher and elevate inflation concerns. The spike in Treasury yields could weigh on the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Thursday. Although markets expect a 25 basis point rate cut, any indication of a pause or slowdown in cuts would further pressure gold, already sensitive to rising rates and a stronger dollar. Bearish Trend for Gold as Dollar and Yields Rise – With a stronger dollar and rising yields, gold faces immediate downside risk, extending toward the 50-day moving average at $2,636.66 if the Federal Reserve signals a cautious stance on future rate cuts. As the market assesses the Fed’s language and the inflationary risks posed by Trump’s policy agenda, a bearish outlook on gold persists in the near term. If yields continue upward and the dollar maintains its strength, gold could struggle to recover above recent support levels, leading to further downside potential.”
On the day gold closed down $72.70 at $2667.60, and silver closed down $1.44 at $31.22.
On Thursday the price of gold got some welcomed good news as traders obviously bought the large drop in prices yesterday. Gold opened around $2655.00, immediately moved to session highs ($2700.00) closing nicely in the green and moving to $2710.00 in the aftermarket.
This suggests underlying support in this bullish market. It is too early to suggest that gold is out of the woods as analysts are still watching the technical reset after yesterday’s price debacle. But today you are seeing the beginning of a positive shift in a very volatile trading week.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to See Supporters Heading Into FOMC – “The gold market continues to see a lot of noise, but it looks like it is trying to rally at this point in time. This market has bounced heading into the FOMC, launching from the 50 Day EMA (Exponential Moving Average). Technical Analysis – The gold market has turned around to show signs of life right at the crucial 50 day EMA as it looks like we are going to continue to see traders take advantage of dips in the gold market. This makes quite a bit of sense because quite frankly, we’ve been in a massive uptrend. And despite the fact that the elections in the United States are over, we still have plenty of reasons to think that gold will eventually march much higher. It’s not as if the United States is suddenly going to stop spending money. I postulate that it’s the exact opposite, neither candidate was going to rein in spending. And I think what you’re seeing here is the market realizing this. With this being said, we do have the FOMC interest rate decision later in the day, and that of course is something worth watching, and probably brings in quite a bit of volatility, but really at this point, I think you’ve got a situation where value hunters have come back into the marketplace, and they just look at this as a nice opportunity. Underneath we have the $2,600 level, an area that I think offers quite a bit of support. So, if we break down below there, maybe we reset a little bit, but I do find it interesting that we are turning around almost instantly in what has been a massive uptrend and really at this point in time something that’s been a pretty obvious trade most of the year. Silver Continues to See Supportive Action on Thursday – The silver market bounced slightly during the early hours on Thursday as traders continue to pay close attention to interest rates, geopolitics, and of course the fact that we have the Federal Reserve later in the day. With this being the case, I think you have to look at this through the prism of a market that may end up showing signs of upward volatility as we get closer to the interest rate decision. But eventually, I think the same reasons that we rallied before are still very much in play, not the least of which would be the fact that the United States is going to spend a lot. That debases the dollar with plenty of fiat currency being printed, some people will run to the precious metal sector. Furthermore, we still have plenty of geopolitical issues out there to worry about, so let us not forget that. And ultimately, I think what you have is a situation where traders will eventually head back to the overall long-term trade they had been in for a while. Anyway, so once we clear the $32.50 level, I think it opens up the possibility of a move to the $35 level, although it might take a minute or two to get there. I do think that is ultimately what we are, in fact, going to try to do. So, with that being the case, I am bullish, but I’m not willing to jump in with a huge amount of money because silver of course is very volatile. This is a situation where we should continue what we have seen previously.”
On the day gold closed up $30.80 at $2698.40, and silver closed up $0.55 at $31.77.
On Friday the price of gold and silver continued to cool, both finishing mildly in the red. This looks like a reasonable settling considering the large drop this past Wednesday. I’m not saying that we are out of the woods yet but considering the likely shift in US world political view because of Trump there are plenty of reasons which will encourage safe haven demand and fresh speculation. I also like the bounce in prices yesterday, not the end of the world but large enough to suggest that we are not far from substantial support both in the short and long term. You are likely to see further cooling because of the long Veterans Day weekend, so the smart money will take a break let the smoke clear as we salute the men and women who protect this great country.
FXEmpire (Christoher Lewis) – Gold Continues to Look Supported Underneath – “The gold market has been somewhat subdued over the past 12 hours or so, but it still looks very bullish to me from a longer-term standpoint. At this point, the gold market has so much in the way of external pressures to the upside. Technical Analysis – The gold market has pulled back just a bit during the early hours on Friday, as it looks like we are still trying to consolidate and sort out where we are going after the US election and the Federal Reserve interest rate decision. That being said, the 50 day EMA underneath offers quite a bit of support near the 2630 level and is rising. At this point in time, if the market does pull back to that area, I would anticipate that there will be value hunters looking to get involved here. After that, you have the 2600 level, which is also significant support based on both psychology and the previous action that we have seen, so I think you need to pay close attention to that. With interest rates around the world all over the place but perhaps more importantly, a lot of economic uncertainty it does make a certain amount of sense that gold would rally. At the 2800 level I think that we have a significant amount of support just waiting to happen for gold. If we can break through it, that could be your next floor. In the meantime, though, you have to look at it as a potential ceiling and resistance barrier. I suspect that short-term pullbacks will continue to be thought of as valuable opportunities in a market that has been extraordinarily bullish and let us not forget, uncertainty tends to favor gold anyway, so I suspect that we will have a significant amount of bullish traders out there.”
On the day gold closed down $10.90 at $2687.50, and silver closed down $0.41 at $31.36.
Platinum closed down $19.20 at $973.60, and palladium closed $28.50 at $988.90.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, December gold bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the record high of $2,801.80. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the October low of $2,618.80. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $2,717.80 and then at $2,735.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $2,687.30 and then at $2,675. December silver futures bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded. A three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart is in jeopardy. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $33.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $30.00. First resistance is seen at $32.00 and then at $32.50. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $31.42 and then at this week’s low of $30.94.”
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