Commentary for Friday, March 21, 2025 – Today gold closed down $21.80 at $3018.20, and silver closed down $0.50 at $33.29. This has been one of those seminal weeks for gold as Trump politics, changing tariffs, a confusing FOMC decision and geopolitical problems create a bumpy price ride. Yet higher prices and enthusiasm encourage bullish gold and silver sentiment as investors continue to buy dips in both metals. While today’s weakness may suggest further downside it may provide the base filling necessary for fresh record prices in the future, keeping this market healthy. Last Friday gold closed at $2986.05 / silver at $33.79. On the week gold was higher by $32.15, and silver was down by $0.50.
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On Monday the price of gold opened on the quiet side, trading between $2984.00 and $3000.00 and finishing the day almost unchanged. This looks like investors are taking a breath awaiting the results of this week’s Fed meeting. The FOMC will meet on the 18th and 19th of March for its second monetary policy decision this year. Most believe it will keep interest rates unchanged at the current range of 4.25% to 4.50%. This will likely cap the price of gold on the short term even though “the Trump effect” will continue to support safe haven demand. I don’t think there is much downside in the short term even at these lofty levels because the geopolitical picture remains very uncertain. Even with consumer sentiment at a 29 month low there is not much chance of recession. Fed Chair Powell recently stated that the US economy “continues to be in a good place,” highlighting the resilience of the labor market despite global economic challenges. This suggests our central bank sees no immediate need to adjust rates. If interest rates hold steady gold will likely follow along holding above $3000.00 this year. Still, it’s smart to remember that this market remains confused and tense – the adage “too much – too fast” remains a good consideration. In 2023 gold was $1800.00, today it’s just under $3000.00. Some people may want to cash in and take advantage of higher interest rates. Or not if you are looking for $4000.00. My point being that I would expect this toppy market to eventually turn volatile.
Reuters (Daksh Grover) – Gold holds below $3,000 ahead of Fed rate decision – “Gold prices were steady on Monday, sitting just below the $3,000 mark that was finally broken last week, with the focus on trade tariffs and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy meeting. Spot gold edged up 0.1% to $2,987.13 an ounce by 09:29 p.m. ET (1329 GMT), having hit a record high of $3,004.86 on Friday. U.S. gold futures eased 0.2% to $2,994.70. The Federal Reserve will give its new economic projections this week, which will provide the most tangible evidence yet of how U.S. central bankers view the likely impact of President Donald Trump’s policies that have clouded a previously solid economic outlook. There are “no guarantees” there will not be a recession in the United States, although there could be an adjustment, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday. “I expect some consolidation in gold prices…Right now, the market is in a “wait-and-see” mode ahead of the Fed’s decision,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. Markets expect the U.S. central bank to hold interest rates on Wednesday, with the next cut in June. Zero-yield bullion is considered a hedge against uncertainty and tends to thrive in a low-interest environment. Data showed U.S. retail sales rebounded by less than expected in February, signaling moderate economic growth despite import tariffs and federal worker layoffs dampening sentiment. “Should economic data continue to soften, and the global tariff war escalate, gold will continue to benefit,” analysts at Heraeus Metals said in a note. Trump, meanwhile, said he plans to speak to Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday and discuss ending the war in Ukraine. Spot silver fell 1.01% to $33.44 an ounce and palladium was down 0.38% to $961.50, while platinum added 0.3% to $996.45.”
On the day gold closed up $5.50 at $3000.00, and silver closed down $0.12 at $34.07.
On Tuesday the price of gold opened strong, moving to daily highs ($3035.00) and finishing the day nicely in the green. Middle East hostilities have flared, and Israel launched airstrikes across Gaza killing 400 Palestinians. And AP notes – “Trump warns Iran it will face ‘consequences’ of further attacks from Yemen’s Houthi rebels.” The geopolitical problems are again front and center, which will underpin and likely increase physical bullion demand as safe haven tension increases. It’s no wonder gold and silver are strong with the world coming apart pell-mell. The term pell-mell dates to the 1500’s but you don’t see it much these days. It describes a state of movement or action that is chaotic and lacks organization. Now throw Trump into the middle of this miserable mess and you should expect more fireworks and expected higher metal prices. Still, be cautious at the top of this expanding market. Consider taking a bit of profit if you are in gold or silver at substantially lower prices. A cash reserve, before the trouble starts, makes sense.
FXEmpire (Christoher Lewis) – Gold Continues to Roar Higher – “The gold markets continue to see a lot of bullish pressure, as the market continues to see a lot of reasons to go higher. With geopolitical issues, tariff threats, and the central banks around the world looking to loosen rates, gold continues to shine. Technical Analysis – The gold markets have rallied rather significantly during the trading session on Tuesday in the early hours as we are well above the 3000 level. I thought that we would have more of a fight at $3,000, but clearly, we’re never going to have that. So, looking at this, I think we have a situation where traders are probably going to be looking at this through the prism of the measured move of the bullish flag. In other words, I think we’re going to $3,300. We won’t get there overnight, but I do think that’s your target now. Short-term pullbacks will continue to be attractive for value hunters. And the pullback and bounce method of trading is probably going to be preferred in general anyway. The 50-day EMA is all the way down at the $2,860 level as it’s racing towards the $2,900 level. I do think at this point in time, the market is one that eventually will have to take into account the Federal Reserve, which has an interest rate decision, but more importantly, a press conference on Wednesday, so people will be paying close attention to what the Federal Reserve is leaning towards. We also have the Bank of Japan earlier on Wednesday, and then we have a couple of other interest rate decisions, Switzerland and, I believe, England, neither of which will probably have a major influence here on Thursday. Regardless, this is a market that is very bullish. There’s no opportunity to short this from what I can see. Somebody will try to short the top of the market as they see it and they will more likely than not lose a lot of money. Don’t be that trader, look for value, take advantage of it. It’s worked for quite a while now and we are accelerating yet again. Silver Continues to Look Strong – The silver market continues to see a lot of momentum to the upside overall, as the silver market continues to follow the gold market. At this point, the market will continue to pay close attention to the $35 level. Technical Analysis – The silver market has rallied a bit during the early hours on Tuesday as we continue to see a lot of money flow into precious metals. The silver market had formed a massive hammer during the previous session on Monday. So, this is just a continuation of the recovery near the crucial $33.33 level. The question now is, can we get to the $35 level? I think the answer is yes, but I also think it’s a very noisy path to that level. Breaking above there is possible, but in the past, we’ve only done that twice, and that ends up sending silver towards the $50 level, which would not surprise me at this point, as this market is so momentum driven most days. Short-term pullbacks, I think, continue to be buying opportunities in silver, which is inherently volatile to begin with. And you must keep in the back of your mind that silver is not gold, it’s also an industrial metal. So, if we get good news from the trade tariff front, that could also help silver. Although, admittedly, I think that’s probably one of the more minor points. If the US dollar starts to shrink, then that helps the silver market as well. So, pay attention to the forex markets while trading silver. Regardless, keep your position size. Reasonable silver can get you into a lot of trouble very quickly if you’re overexposed in this dangerous market. At this point, I’d be bullish, but I continue to prefer gold over silver.
On the day gold closed up $35.10 at $3035.10, and silver closed up $0.51 at $34.58.
On Wednesday the price of gold moved between $3026.00 and $3044.00 so the paper trade is testing both overhead resistance and support creating a rather stable trade. The Federal Open Market Committee began on Tuesday and will conclude Wednesday afternoon after the markets close. Analysts expect no change in the prevailing interest rate because Chief Powell has the advantage of a stable US economy even during Trump rhetoric and tariff wars. This window of opportunity, however, may be short lived as other nations struggle with the same problems. Interest rates should soon be moving lower to avoid possible recession, but this process takes time. For now, I believe gold prices will stabilize within $50.00 or $100.00 of recent highs and be supported at these levels because of safe haven demand. It is interesting that even at these lofty levels the public remains a net buyer of bullion gold and silver across our trading desk. The “fear factor” is still the primary price driver supported by the possibility of lower interest rates.
Reuters (Daksh Grover) – Gold prices hold steady as investors eye U.S. Fed verdict – “Gold prices were little changed on Wednesday, after touching a fresh record level earlier in the day on continued safe-haven demand, as investors awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision due later in the day. Spot gold fell 0.1% to $3,030.13 an ounce, as of 09:35 a.m. ET (1335 GMT). Bullion surged to an all-time high of $3,045.24 earlier in the session, marking its 15th record peak this year. “There are concerns that tariffs could spark inflation, and there’s a consensus that despite rising prices from U.S. tariffs, the Federal Reserve might start easing policy around mid-year,” said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities. U.S. President Donald Trump raised tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum to 25%, effective last week, and has said he intends for new reciprocal and sectoral tariffs to take effect on April 2. Gold, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven investment during times of inflation or economic volatility, has climbed over 15% so far this year. On the geopolitical front, Russia and Ukraine accused each other of violating a new agreement to refrain from attacks on energy targets just hours after U.S. President Donald Trump spoke by phone with Russia’s Vladimir Putin. Violence has meanwhile returned to Gaza, where Israeli airstrikes killed more than 400 people on Tuesday, according to Palestinian health authorities. “I expect gold to trade roughly where it is now, give or take about $25,” Melek said. Investors are now focused on the U.S. central bank policy decision due later in the day, followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments. Traders expect the Fed to hold its benchmark interest rate this month, with rate cuts likely to resume in June. Gold becomes more attractive with low interest rates, as it is a non-yielding asset. Spot silver dropped 1.2% to $33.61, platinum lost 1.6% to $980.90, and palladium fell to $959.20.”
On the day gold closed up $0.80 at $3035.90, and silver closed down $0.60 at $33.98.
On Thursday the price of gold moved between $3055.00 through $3025.00, trading on both sides of unchanged. This looks like settling after the FOMC did not change interest rates yesterday. All in all, bullish sentiment has done well this week, as Powell moved through this mine field unscathed in charting an interest rate policy that helps folks breathe a little easier.
The bullish metals sentiment remains strong, and the Wall Street crowd less nervous. How long this relative calm will last remains to be seen as Trump continues to bang around with real and fake tariffs. The volatility factor this week has bothered some, but $25.00 or even $50.00 daily price swings may now be typical as gold hits another record high post-FOMC.
FXEmpire (Christoher Lewis) – Gold Continues to See Buyers on Dips – “The gold market continues to see a lot of buyers jumping into it every time we fall. This has been the same situation we find ourselves in on Thursday, as the market had a rough Asian session. Technical Analysis – The gold market has been all over the place during the trading session in the early hours of Thursday, and we have even seen a strong sell off at one point, but it looks like the buyers are coming back in order to try to pick this market up. We are in a strong uptrend, so that’s not a huge surprise, and anytime you get a dip, there will be a certain number of people out there willing to get involved. After all, this has been one of the best trades so far in the last three or four months, and we have recently broken above the top of a massive bullish flag that suggests we are going to go much higher. In fact, it suggests that we could go as high as $3,300. So, with that in mind, I don’t have any interest in trying to get too cute here. I look at dips as short-term buying opportunities, but I also recognize that longer-term traders may be adding to positions while we are there. In other words, it works for everybody. The $3,000 level underneath should be significant support, and then the $2,900 level after that, especially now that the 50-day EMA is starting to race towards that level. With geopolitical concerns out there continuing to be an issue and of course the US dollar suddenly looking a bit weaker, I think it all lines up quite nicely for stronger gold prices. Central banks around the world are more likely than not to get a little easier with their monetary policy this year, so gold is just simply front running that as well. Silver Finds Buyers on The Dip – The silver market fell hard in the Asian session on Thursday, as the markets continue to see a lot of volatility. However, it is worth noting that the buyers have returned as we head toward the US session. Silver continues to be noisy, so be careful with your position size. Technical Analysis – The silver market has plunged early during the trading session on Thursday to reach towards the $33.33 level, an area that I’ve been watching quite a bit. It might be worth noting that the market does seem as if it is trying to stabilize here and therefore, I think we could see value hunters coming in to pick up little bits and pieces of silver in order to take advantage of what has been a very strong uptrend. I have no interest in shorting silver, and I do think that given enough time we probably go quite a bit higher, but I also recognize that silver is a very noisy market and one that you can get into a lot of trouble if you are not careful. So, with that, I am hesitant to get aggressive, but I do think that this could be a short-term buy on the dip setup. If we break down from here, the $32.50 level is an area where I start to look at potential support as well. And I think that given enough time, we are going to do everything we can to finally break towards the $35 level, which was a major swing high, and of course, an area that’s been important multiple times throughout history. I have no interest in shorting silver. I think ultimately, we do go higher based on a shrinking US dollar, and of course, a lot of fear out there as it is part of the precious metals complex.
On the day gold closed up $4.10 at $3040.00, and silver closed down $0.19 at $33.79.
On Friday the price of gold was steady on the open but out of nowhere it suddenly tested support at $3000.00. A potentially bearish development. This nosedive was bought by the traders, which is a plus. But such turbulence is a good reminder that with the large number of crosscurrents floating around, rising geopolitical tension, and the possibility of recession there could be trouble brewing in River City. Investors still see new record highs over the long term. But in the short term (3 to 6 months) today’s test of support may portend further downside. The sharpies in this business are considering a $100.00 drop but I believe this is too extreme. Just keep your seat belts fastened and expect sudden changes short term.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to See Noisy but Positive Momentum – “The gold market is a bit lower in the early hours of Friday, but we have also seen the market try to bounce a bit, showing that there are plenty of traders out there willing to start buying yet again. Technical Analysis – Gold markets have pulled back just a bit in the early hours of Friday, but we’ve seen them turn right back around into signs of life again. Because of this, I think you’ve got a situation where you have to watch the volatility here but give it enough time. I do think that the uptrend will continue. I mean, quite frankly, this has been a very bullish market for a long time, and I just don’t see that changing for a significant amount of time anytime soon. If we do drop from here, the $3,000 level is an area that you’ll have to be paying attention to as it is a large round psychologically significant figure and an area that previously had been resistance. If we were to break down below there, then you start looking at the bullish flag on the chart as it shows you a potential support level two on the top of it. The 50 day EMA sits just below the $2,900 level and is rising. All things being equal, this is a market that I buy on dips and the session on Friday may be offering that. We are a little extended, but when you take a look at the bullish flag, the so-called measured move, if you will, is for a move to the $3,300 level based on the pull of the flag. Ultimately, I think this is a situation where you just wait for opportunities to find cheaper gold and you take advantage of them. Geopolitical concerns, interest rates, and of course the potential of a US recession all have gold looking good. Silver Continues to See Volatile Moves in Friday Selloff – The silver market has been very negative in the early hours of Friday, as we have seen the market take back some of its gains. At this point, the silver market is likely to find buyers underneath that could get the next leg higher going in this market. Technical Analysis – Silver markets have broken down pretty significantly in the early hours of Friday as we continue to see a lot of noise in general. With this being the case, I think you have to assume that market participants are perhaps running away from silver and towards the dollar, which if you look in the Forex markets, that’s exactly what happened. And now the question is whether or not we can continue to see buyers come in and support silver. I think we do eventually, perhaps somewhere near the $32.50 level, we start to see that.
We also have the 50 day EMA near the $32.35 level, which of course is an area that I’ve brought up multiple times in the past. So that is worth watching. Quite frankly, I think this could end up being a nice buying opportunity for silver. If you know, things keep going the way they are as the overall trend is still very intact. There’s still plenty of reasons to think that maybe silver will continue to be attractive as the US dollar is on the decline overall, despite the fact that the session on Friday was the opposite. But nonetheless, I like this trend. I am a buyer of dips. I just need to see a little bit of stabilization on short-term charts, and perhaps a little bit of a bounce to add to more of the momentum. Regardless, I have no interest in shorting solar anytime soon.”
On the day gold closed down $21.80 at $3018.20, and silver closed down $0.50 at $33.29.
Platinum closed down $13.30 at $976.20, and palladium closed up $12.10 at $951.20.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, April gold futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $3,100.00. Bears’ next near-term downside objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,900.00. First resistance is seen at the contract high of $3,065.20 and then at $3,085.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $3,026.90 and then at Tuesday’s low of $3,008.20. May silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the October 2024 high of $35.80. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $32.215. First resistance is seen at $34.00 and then at Thursday’s high of $34.595. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $33.475 and then at $33.00.”
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