Commentary for Friday, March 28, 2025 – Today gold closed up $26.30 at $3086.50, and silver closed down $0.26 at $34.64. This has been another great week for the metals. Inflation is proving to be “sticky”, the dollar is moving lower, and geopolitical tension is moving higher. However, insiders are surprised there has not been more profit taking in the physical market. Especially as gold competes with these still high interest rates. Also worth noting is that with President Trump’s complex tariff policies it is not likely that safe haven demand will fade any thing soon. All of this adds up to speculation that gold is moving to $4000.00. Which is a stretch for me but in this upside down world who knows? This is easily the most exciting time in my 50 years of trading the metals. Last Friday gold closed at $3018.20 / silver at $33.29. On the week gold was higher by $68.30, and silver was higher by $1.35.
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On Monday the price of gold wobbled somewhat trading between $3005.00 and $3030.00 with a small downward trend on the day. The good news is that it held above $3000.00 – which is great considering the large loss in price we saw Friday. Holding above $3000.00 in a volatile market like this creates that bullish vibe necessary to keep the bigger picture in mind. Especially if you buy the idea that the Fed will be forced to lower interest rates between now and Christmas.
The sharpies are thinking two quarter point drops by the FOMC before the end of the year. Lower interest rates, the notion that Trump is softening a bit on his tariff policy, and the fact that paper traders continue to buy weakness is good for bullish sentiment. Today’s volume numbers across our trading desk are mostly ho hum. So, those holding physical bullion are still content, waiting for fresh news and even higher prices. My bet is that central banks and investors will continue to stock up in an uncertain world. Those who believe we are still in the early stages of a larger bullish market like this consolidation because they are looking for fresh all-time highs.
Reuters (Anmol Choubey) – Gold ticks up as investors seek haven amid US tariff concerns – “Gold prices edged up on Monday, supported by safe-haven demand due to concerns about impending reciprocal tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump. Spot gold was steady at $3,022.21 an ounce at 09:50 a.m. (1350 GMT). U.S. gold futures edged 0.2% higher to $3,026.40. “We’re not too far off those all-time highs and that little pullback we saw late last week was bought up fairly quickly. I expect that to continue here,” said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. Gold, traditionally seen as a hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainties and often thriving in a low interest rate environment, has surged 15% this year. Bullion reached an all-time high of $3057.21 last week, before slipping for two consecutive sessions. Trump hinted on Friday that there would be some flexibility regarding reciprocal tariffs that are set to take effect on April 2 and are expected to drive inflation and hinder economic growth. Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee and New York Fed President John Williams said on Friday that it would be premature to gauge the economic effects of Trump’s tariff actions. Last week, the Fed held its benchmark interest rate steady and indicated two quarter-percentage-point cuts this year. Investors now await U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures data due on Friday, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. Meanwhile, U.S. and Russian officials held talks in Saudi Arabia aimed at making progress towards a broad ceasefire in Ukraine, with Washington eyeing a separate Black Sea maritime ceasefire before securing a wider agreement. “If over the week the talks in Saudi Arabia do materialize and there is a dip in gold based off that, I expect it will be bought up fairly quickly,” Haberkorn said. Spot silver firmed to $33.11, platinum fell 0.6% to $968.85, and palladium was down 1.1% at $947.75.”
On the day gold closed down $5.10 at $3013.10, and silver closed down $0.02 at $33.27.
On Tuesday the price of gold opened choppy, quickly moved to session highs ($3035.00) but only closed mildly in the green on the day. This trading pattern reminds me of a typically jittery market reacting to falling consumer confidence and feared inflation over Trump tariff uncertainty. And it is still not clear as to what the Fed has in mind relative to interest rates. So, the name of the game for now will continue to be perceived safe haven demand pitted against the possibility of profit taking within the bullion community if investors cash in on record prices.
Reuters (Anmol Choubey) – Gold rises on safe-haven demand amid Trump tariff worries – “Gold prices rose on Tuesday, supported by safe-haven demand amid uncertainty over U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff plans for next week that could potentially boost inflation. Spot gold was up 0.4% to $3,024.56 an ounce at 09:31 a.m. ET (1331 GMT). U.S. gold futures were up 0.5% to $3,029.30. “Investors are concerned about the state of the world, especially with U.S. policies being what they are, and so they’re buying gold as an alternative asset because they’re concerned that the U.S. government may throw the world into a global recession,” said Jeffrey Christian, managing partner of CPM Group. Gold, traditionally seen as a hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainties, has risen more than 15% this year and reached an all-time peak of $3,057.21 on March 20. Trump has said not all of his threatened levies would be imposed on April 2 and some countries may get breaks. The Financial Times said the president is considering a two-step tariff regime next week. Trump’s tariff policies are widely expected to weigh on economic growth, trigger further trade tensions, and drive up inflation. Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said he expected just one quarter-percentage-point reduction in the Fed’s benchmark interest rate by the year-end, following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision last week to keep rates on hold while hinting at half-percentage-point cut later this year. “The odds of rate cuts seem to be backing off a little bit and I think overall it’s still really bullish for (an) inflationary metal like gold. I would say the next level up is probably around $3,125,” said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. Meanwhile, Ukrainian and U.S. delegations are scheduled to meet on Tuesday in Saudi Arabia following Russia-U.S. talks there a day earlier on a limited Black Sea ceasefire proposal that Washington hopes will open the way for broader peace negotiations. Spot silver gained 1.9% to $33.61 an ounce, platinum added 1.1% to $983.56, and palladium added 1.2% to $959.75.”
On the day gold closed up $10.60 at $3023.70, and silver closed up $0.73 at $34.00.
On Wednesday the price of gold was generally choppy, moving between $3030.00 and $3016.00 in early trading with a small downside bias. This market continues to wash one way and then another but generally these swings have been small and lack any formal conviction. Gold is just hanging out waiting for the next Trump rumble or international dispute. This tense geopolitical undertone supports safe haven demand but there are not enough fireworks to ignite substantial upside numbers in the shorter term. Especially if interest rates remain steady. Keep in mind however that many believe the general trend for higher prices in gold remains in place.
(Reuters) – B of A raises gold price forecasts for 2025, 2026 – “Bank of America (B of A) has raised its gold period average forecasts for this year and next, while highlighting that uncertainty arising from U.S. trade policies will continue to lend support to prices in the near-term. B of A now expects gold to trade at $3,063 per ounce (oz) in 2025 and $3,350/oz in 2026, it said in a note on Wednesday. This is an increase from its previous forecasts of $2,750/oz for 2025 and $2,625/oz for 2026. Spot gold is currently trading around $3,024/oz and has gained more than 15% so far this year. This year’s record rally has been steered by economic and geopolitical worries sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies. Trump’s whirlwind tariff offensive since his January inauguration has been marked by threats, reversals and delays, sometimes within hours of imposition deadlines, as his trade team formulates policy on the fly. The bank in a note reiterated that if investment demand increases by 10% then spot gold prices could climb to $3,500 within the next two years. It noted that central banks currently hold about 10% of their reserves in gold, and could raise this figure to over 30%, which could be a key supporting factor. However, B of A added that US fiscal consolidation, reduced geopolitical tensions, and a return to collaborative inter-governmental relations, including more targeted tariffs on April 2, are key risks to bullion’s rally. Currently, the main market focus is on potential reciprocal tariffs that the Trump administration might adopt on April 2.”
On the day gold closed down $2.80 at $3020.90, and silver closed up $0.03 at $34.03.
On Thursday the price of gold moved to another record high trading between $3030.00 and threatening $3060.00. Traders took profits as usual, but gold closed strongly enough into fresh territory to suggest further short term gains are in the cards. Good news continues to stack up on the bullish side of the scale this morning. More aggressive tariffs have sparked fresh interest at these lofty prices and world problems in general continue to encourage safe haven demand.
What traders are looking for now is confirmation that $3000.00 has become a solid floor for gold. If so, this will further convince the investment community that owning gold and silver bullion during troubled times is a good bet. If $3000.00 gold does not hold up it will put bullish sentiment on hold for a time, perhaps encouraging further selling. Still, this market has plenty of energy, pushed by many sectors. I think $3500.00 will soon be on the radar screen.
Reuters (Anmol Choubey) – Gold futures hit record high as US tariffs spark trade tensions – “U.S. gold futures scaled a record peak on Thursday, as investors sought the safe-haven asset in response to escalating global trade tensions and tumbling equity markets following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of new auto tariffs. U.S. gold futures climbed 1.1% to $3,056.10, after hitting an all-time high of $3,065.50 earlier in the session, while spot gold rose $3,047.89 an ounce as of 09:10 a.m. ET (1310 GMT). Gold is traditionally seen as a hedge against economic and political uncertainty and often thrives in a low-interest rate environment. Gold spot prices have hit 16 record highs this year, reaching an all-time peak of $3,057.21 on March 20. “Looks like we’re going to see (gold futures hit) $3100 here shortly and the main catalyst is safe-haven buying,” driven by uncertainty around Trump’s tariff plans, said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. Governments from Ottawa to Paris threatened retaliation after Trump unveiled a 25% tariff on imported vehicles, set to come into effect the day after he plans to announce reciprocal tariffs, aimed at the countries he says are responsible for the bulk of the U.S. trade deficit. Global stock markets fell as shares in some of the world’s biggest carmakers tumbled. Following the Federal Reserve’s decision last week to hold its benchmark interest rate steady, while indicating potential rate cuts later this year, investors are now awaiting the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures data due on Friday to gauge the trajectory for further rate cuts. “If (the PCE data) comes out better-than-expected, it might signal more upside for gold… because the Fed would be in a better position to start cutting rates,” Haberkorn said. Goldman Sachs on Wednesday raised its end-2025 gold price forecast to $3,300 per ounce from $3,100, citing stronger-than-expected ETF inflows and sustained central bank demand. Spot silver rose 0.6% to $33.90 an ounce, platinum fell 0.5% to $970.25 and palladium added 0.4% to $972.42.”
On the day gold closed up $39.30 at $3060.20, and silver closed up $0.87 at $34.90.
On Friday the price of gold tested overhead resistance at $3082.00 twice, which suggests even higher prices next week. Traders are reacting to Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) which came in hot. So, inflation is not abating, and at the same time the dollar is moving lower. Combine these key points with a solid technical outlook and it’s easy to feel the rising optimism. This latest surge to higher ground could signal higher prices next week. I would like to see this now rather hot market settle down over the next month. This will allow everyone to assess a point which is often obscured in the heat of battle. Will profit taking change this bull run?
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to Power Up – “The gold market was initially quiet this past week, but we have seen massive move higher in the last couple of days. At this point, this is a market that should continue to see plenty of buyers on dips. Technical Analysis – The gold market initially pulled back just a bit in the early hours of Monday and spent quite a bit of the week drifting sideways. However, on Thursday and Friday, we have seen gold absolutely explode to the upside yet again. This is a market that had recently formed a massive bullish flag that measured for a move to the $3,300 level, which of course is something that I’ve been talking about. But the problem, of course, was that most of the week was sideways action. So therefore, you had to be very patient. Well, if you are patient, you’re being paid for it. Now, this is an extraordinarily strong trend, and there’s really nothing on this chart that even remotely suggests that you should be selling gold or shorting it. But what I would say is occasionally you might want to take some profit, wait for a pullback, and buy some more. That’s generally how I play markets like this, as the fundamentals and the technicals line up for a very strong move over the next several months. Keep in mind that there are a lot of concerns out there about tariff wars, and that has people looking to protect their portfolios via gold and other things as well, but I do think you’ve got a situation where gold has a little bit of a perfect storm going and of course momentum begets more momentum. So that’s exactly what you’ve seen yet again, very bullish action and I remain long and of course positive on this market. Silver Continues to Look Strong – The silver market continues to see a lot of buying pressure, and at this point and time, we are approaching a significant resistance area. Nonetheless, silver should continue to rise over the longer term. Technical Analysis – Silver has pulled back initially during the trading session on Friday, only to turn around and show signs of life. Ultimately, this is a market that I think is trying to break out and go to much higher levels. We have been very bullish for some time, but all things being equal, I think every time this market pulls back, you have to look at it through the prism of a potential buy on the dip situation. If we can break above the $35 level, it’s likely that silver is really going to take off. The gold market, of course, has been very bullish and has broken out significantly. So, I think that given enough time, silver will, of course, catch up. That doesn’t necessarily mean that we are going to see a shot straight up in the air. And I do think that silver has some work to do, but all things being equal, I don’t have any interest in getting short of this market. The $33.33 level below is previous resistance, and it should now be support. It’s worth noting that the Thursday candlestick was extraordinarily bullish, so there is a lot of momentum here. And if we can continue to see the move to the upside, then the silver market will eventually break the swing high and go much higher. Given enough time, that’s exactly what I expect to see. But I also recognize that we are a little stretched in the short term, so perhaps waiting for a bit of value might be the way to go.”
On the day gold closed up $26.30 at $3086.50, and silver closed down $0.26 at $34.64.
Platinum closed down $5.50 at $977.70, and palladium closed up $0.50 at $974.30 .
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, June gold futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $3,200.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $3,031.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of $3,124.40 and then at $3,150.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $3,096.30 and then at $3,075.00. May silver futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy, three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the October 2024 high of $35.80. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $33.165. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $35.495 and then at $35.80. Next support is seen at $35.00 and then at $34.56.”
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