Commentary for Thursday, April 17, 2025 – Today gold closed down $17.90 at $3308.70, and silver closed down $0.51 at $32.42. The price of gold this morning is cooling a bit after setting new record highs this week. Traders and investors continue to ponder changing tariff winds and generally lower interest rates. But with the price of gold up 50% in the past 12 months I would avoid the notion that in some manner prices are now getting ready to go parabolic. This market needs time to build a reliable base. Investors should be wary that “higher and higher” prices can present an unstable base, subject to all sorts of mischief. Still the bulls bought today’s dip which portends underlying strength. Please note that we are closed tomorrow (April 18th) for Good Friday. Last Friday gold closed at $3222.20 / silver at $31.82. On the week gold was higher by $86.50, and silver was higher by $0.60.
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On Monday the price of gold drifted lower and tested support at $3190.00. This is a bullish disappointment considering last week’s talk of higher prices. We are seeing less anxiety, which is reflected in a firmer stock market. But traders might be right in the middle of the classic “catching your breath” scenario. You could make the case that profit taking is a threat but the geopolitical world remains a mess so I can’t see much selling even at these lofty levels. For now, with Trump beating the tariff drum, investors will likely buy weakness. I don’t think things will cool down between the US, China and Iran anytime soon, so another reason for higher prices.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to Levitate – “The gold market looks as if it is getting a bit tired in the early hours of Monday, but at this point, it is obviously in a massive uptrend. Any pullback should be thought of as a potential buying opportunity. Technical Analysis – Gold markets have been back and forth in the early hours on Monday, which should not be a huge surprise considering that we are so extended at the moment. After all, the market had shot straight up in the air during the last three sessions, gaining a passive amount of real estate, about $250 in the second half of last week. That being said, I do anticipate that there will be a little bit of a pullback sooner or later. And quite frankly, I think that pullback will be a buying opportunity for those looking to find value in a market that has basically run away from us. There will continue to be major reasons for gold to continue going higher, not the least of which will be the uncertainty involving tariffs, but also the uncertainty involving how global growth may or may not occur from here. After all, the tariffs are coming on the back of what looks to be a slowing US economy anyway, and when the US slows down generally, that means everybody else does as well. Even though Germany is actually coming out of a recession there are a lot of questions out there when it comes to geopolitics as well. And that, course, helps gold go higher. Also, a shrinking US dollar only adds more fuel to the fire, but that may be coming to an end as we are getting a little exhausted at this point, shorting the US dollar. Maybe that’s what causes the gold market to pull back. I believe there’s a hard floor near the $3,000 level that you will have to pay close attention to as it has a lot of psychology attached to it and now has the 50 day EMA and a recent bounce from that area backing up that idea. Silver Continues to See Pressure From Below – The silver market looks as if it is ready to continue going higher, but may need a bit of a pullback in order to continue higher over the longer term. That being said, I am not interested in selling. Technical Analysis – Silver has been back and forth in the early hours on Monday as we try to figure out where we’re going next. Frankly, I do think silver is going to play a little bit of catch up with the gold market, but it’s also worth noting that gold is overbought as well. A short-term pullback would make a sense, with the 200 day EMA sitting below, near the $31 level. I think that sets up as a nice opportunity to get moving for those who may have missed the bounce that we’ve seen over the last several sessions. The US dollar is a little oversold at this point, so that could be the main culprit for silver pulling back. But also keep in mind that the silver market is not just a precious metals market, but it’s also an industrial one. This will be affected by the idea, or at least the perception, that perhaps global growth is slowing down, and if that is, in fact, the case, then you’re going to have an issue where while silver may climb, it may not climb as much as gold. All things being equal, though, it does look like we are in the midst of trying to recover, and I would postulate that a lot of the selling a couple of weeks ago in both silver and gold had a lot to do with the idea that it was forced liquidations. What I mean by that is a lot of hedge funds were highly levered to various markets and when everything started falling apart, they had to sell the markets that they had the most gains in, in order to cover margin calls and other assets. So silver was a victim of this. Well, certainly gold was. So one would think that one movement leads to the other. I am bullish on silver, but I do think eventually, we try to get back to the $35 level. I just don’t think it will be as aggressive as some people wish, and probably not as aggressive as it had been on the way down.”
On the day gold closed down $17.40 at $3204.80, and silver closed up $0.27 at $32.09.
On Tuesday the price of gold was choppy, moving between $3230.00 and $3214.00. It finished the day mildly in the green so the fear of a continued downside from yesterday has abated to some degree as investors took advantage of cheaper prices. So, the feeling that the bulls have a firm grip on this market continues, likely supported by Trump uncertainty over ongoing tariff changes and adjustments. From a price standpoint both gold and silver hold the technical edge, and most see safe demand increasing as the geopolitical scene remains troubling.
Reuters (Brijesh Patel) – Gold climbs as softer dollar, tariff tensions buoy demand – “Gold prices gained on Tuesday, helped by safe-haven demand as U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff plans kept investors wary of trade policy, while an overall weaker dollar also lent support. Spot gold was up 0.4% at $3,223.41 an ounce as of 09:32 a.m. ET (1332 GMT). Bullion hit a record high of $3,245.42 on Monday. “Traders are waiting for the next major fundamental development to drive the gold market, but the charts remain bullish. There’s still safe haven demand,” said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals. Federal Register filings on Monday showed that the U.S. administration is advancing investigations into pharmaceutical and semiconductor imports in a bid to impose tariffs. Trump on Sunday said he would announce the tariff rate on imported semiconductors over the next week. Gold, used as a safe investment during times of political and financial uncertainty, has risen over 23% so far in 2025 and scaled multiple record highs. “The rise in the gold price is also partly in line with the continuing weakness of the dollar, which points to a gradual erosion of the U.S. currency’s status as a safe asset — gold is likely to be an alternative for many USD investors,” Commerzbank said in a note. “The short term monetary policy outlook is providing further support for gold.” The dollar was trading near a three-year low against its rivals, making gold more attractive for other currency holders. Financial markets expect the U.S. central bank to resume cutting interest rates in June after pausing in January and reduce its policy rate by 100 basis points this year. Investors await comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Powell, who is scheduled to speak on Wednesday, for more clues on the interest rate path. Elsewhere, spot silver eased 0.4% to $32.23 an ounce and platinum rose 1.4% to $964.80, while palladium gained 1.3% to $968.46.”
On the day gold closed up $13.90 at $3218.70, and silver closed up $0.14 at $32.23.
On Wednesday the price of gold refused to cool off, making another record high and approaching $3315.00 in the early trade. The reasons for this strength are complicated. And include a fading dollar, which is approaching 3 year lows aided by unabated safe haven demand worldwide. Both the gold and silver technical pictures also continue to powerup. The European Central Bank (ECB) is also ready to cut interest rates as insurance against trade tariffs. So, the bulls are on the same page and for now the possibility of a profit taking round is diminished. To put these latest moves in perspective, consider that gold has now risen 50% in 12 months! Which leads me to believe this market may become unstable using the “too much – too soon” rule.
Reuters (Rahul Paswan and Anjana Anil) – Gold’s luster undimmed, prices hit records above $3,300/oz – “Gold prices pierced the $3,300 an ounce barrier to hit record highs as investors sought a refuge from the turbulence surrounding trade tensions between the United States and China. Spot gold hit a record of $3,317.90 per ounce on Wednesday, resuming a rally based on U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, robust central bank buying and prospects of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. “Gold is re-calibrating to reflect the current state of world affairs … If the price is telling us something, then it’s a distinct warning bell,” said independent analyst Ross Norman. “High conviction buying that commenced about a year ago – likely unreported central bank buying – is being compounded by buying on price strength.” Bullion has gained around 26% so far this year, in a rise that has drawn comparisons with its 1980 rally during the Iranian Revolution, when prices shot up around 118% between November 1979 and January 1980. Trump on Tuesday rolled out the latest of his tariff policies, ordering an investigation into potential new levies on all U.S. critical minerals imports and other goods. “Some longer-term gold owners are taking profit at these fresh record highs, but new inflows are also running strong,” said Adrian Ash, director of research at BullionVault. Gold ETFs saw an inflow of 226.5 metric tons, worth $21.1 billion, in the first quarter of 2025, the largest amount since the first quarter of 2022, when markets were grappling with the consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Gold is traditionally used to hedge against political turmoil. “ETF demand is the additional new component that had otherwise been missing and is certainly helping to fuel the rise,” Norman added. Gold has also gained from the lower dollar, near a three-year low, making bullion a more attractive investment for other currency holders. “The next milestone for gold is $3,500. Expect that before too long,” Norman added. Central bank buying has further buoyed gold, with China’s central bank adding to its reserves in March for the fifth straight month. Gold posted 25 all-time highs this year, of which 13 are above the $3,000 level.”
On the day gold closed up $107.90 at $3326.60, and silver closed up $0.70 at $32.93.
On Thursday the price of gold held up in early trading but soon developed a mild downward bias as investors took profits. Generally, the mainstream remain bullish because there are too many reasons not to double down on gold and silver bullion. But that does not mean that the path to even higher prices will be an easy one. With Powell worried about stagflation, it’s unlikely that the Fed will soon lower interest rates. At the same time the President now does not like the job Jerome is doing and wants him replaced. I do not make much of this latest dog and pony show. But it does suggest these crosswinds will increase volatility. This market has entered what soon might be called its “crazy phase” in which it is impossible to make value judgments in the short term. I would not be too surprised to see a $200.00 change in the price of gold in either direction. Yes, the complications of Trump’s tariff fiasco could tip the world into recession, but that outcome is not likely in my mind. It’s more likely that it will increase volatility. Just gambling on the outcome makes no sense so I would stand aside and wait for fresh information.
Reuters (Brijesh Patel) – Gold’s record rally pauses as investors cash in gains – “Gold prices eased on Thursday after a sharp rise in the previous session as investors booked profits ahead of a long weekend, although softer dollar and escalating U.S. – China trade tensions kept bullion above the $3,300 per ounce level. Spot gold slipped 0.5% to $3,326.51 an ounce as of 08:58 a.m. ET (1258 GMT), after touching a record high of $3,357.40 earlier in the session. Bullion has gained nearly 3% this week. U.S. gold futures were down 0.2% at $3,339.90. “Gold may have a short-term pullback given its spectacular surge this week and ahead of a rare long weekend in the markets,” said Tai Wong, an independent trader. “There is some risk that a trade deal could be announced over the weekend, quite possibly with Japan. However, gold’s trajectory remains higher given the uncertainty and deep concern that continues to worry asset markets.” Gold prices surged 3.6% on Wednesday, driven by U.S. President Trump’s order to open a probe into potential tariffs on all critical mineral imports, in addition to reviews into pharmaceutical and chip imports. Meanwhile, Trump touted “big progress” in tariff talks with Japan on Wednesday, in one of the first rounds of face-to-face negotiations since his barrage of duties on global imports roiled markets and stoked recession fears. The dollar index recovered on Thursday but was still heading for a weekly fall. A weaker greenback makes gold less expensive for holders of other currencies. “We remain bullish towards gold. That said, near-term corrections are likely to occur as tactical players take profits or perhaps experience margin calls triggered by another round of equity liquidations,” consultancy Metals Focus said. Elsewhere, spot silver fell 0.9% to $32.46 an ounce, platinum slipped 1% to $957.18, and palladium dipped 2.3% to $949.72.”
On the day gold closed down $17.90 at $3308.70, and silver closed down $0.51 at $32.42.
Platinum closed down $2.40 at $967.30, and palladium closed down $14.40 at $955.40.
Please note that Golddealer.com is closed tomorrow (April 18th) for Good Friday.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, June gold futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $3,500.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $3,200.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of $3,371.90 and then at $3,400.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $3,325.50 and then at $3,300.00. May silver futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $34.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $31.00. First resistance is seen at $33.00 and then at this week’s high of $33.175. Next support is seen at $32.00 and then at this week’s low of $31.655.”
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