Commentary for Friday, April 4, 2025 – Today gold closed down $85.00 at $3012.00, and silver closed down $2.72 at $29.12. The significant losses in gold yesterday and today have shaken investors in an otherwise enthusiastic market which has been pushed higher by bullish sentiment for months. Some traders are calling this a kind of Armageddon effect. This word serves to describe the possible fallout from Trump and his tariff policies. But for the time being these radical politics have the world hiding under the bed. If you are interested in the religious aspect of the word look at the Book of Revelation. “Armageddon” refers to the site of the final battle between the forces of good (United States) and evil (countries which take advantage of a trade imbalance, in the President’s opinion). I would agree it is a battle between good and evil, but it is not the end of the world. If you are so disposed, take advantage of bargain prices in gold and silver. Last Friday gold closed at $3086.50 / silver at $34.64. On the week gold was down $74.50, and silver was down by $5.52.
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On Monday the price of gold was choppy while driving to all-time highs and finishing the day solidly in the green. Driven by national and international confusion over tariffs, an unstable Middle East, and central bank demand for physical product. This market is hot enough that professionals believe what used to be considered overhead resistance ($3000.00) for the price of gold has turned into solid short term support.
With prices trading higher by 18% this year, after surging 27% in 2024 it is difficult to come up with a bearish scenario that makes sense. Today’s sudden close above the vaulted $3100.00 level opens a new tab for the technical folks. They now consider $3300.00 to $3500.00 gold. Pushed by increasing bullish buzz and crazy tariff talk in this upside down world of cheap money.
Still, it’s easy to get carried away in all this excitement so let’s calm down and use these numbers to consider portfolio balancing. Across our trading desk there is plenty of selling gold and buying silver. Or just selling a small portion of your gold bullion for cash makes sense in troubled times because cash in hand can be used in a moment’s notice in emergencies.
Reuters (Anjana Anil and Anushree Ashish Mukherjee) – Gold sails above $3,100 to uncharted territory as US tariffs approach – “Gold prices soared to record levels above $3,100 per ounce in a rally marking one of the most significant upswings in the precious metal’s history, with psychological levels swept aside by a cocktail of factors – including worry about fallout from impending U.S. tariffs. Spot gold hit a record of $3,128.06 per ounce on Monday. Uncertainty surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs added extra heat to the momentum pushing gold higher, including strong demand from central banks, expectations of interest rate easing by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical instability in the Middle East and Europe, and increased flows into gold-backed exchange traded funds. Bullion is set to log its biggest quarterly rise since September 1986, and has already posted 19 all-time highs in 2025, among which seven are above the unprecedented $3,000 level mark. Prices are up 18% this year, after surging 27% in 2024. “Gold’s rally has been fueled by escalating geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns, and strong investor demand. Given the current macroeconomic environment – particularly trade war uncertainties and central bank policies – this trend appears sustainable in the near term,” said Alexander Zumpfe, a precious metals trader at Heraeus Metals Germany. U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to announce reciprocal tariffs on April 2, while automobile tariffs will take effect on April 3. “Geopolitical uncertainty is high, with Middle East hostilities ongoing and a complete Russia-Ukraine ceasefire remaining elusive. Trump’s weekend comments on Russia, Iran, and Greenland raise the geopolitical temperature, further enhancing gold’s appeal,” said Nikos Tzabouras, senior market analyst at Tradu.com. Last year, gold recorded its best yearly performance since 2010, prompted by market participants fleeing to the safe-haven asset due to increased geopolitical turmoil rising from the wars in the Middle East and Europe, and to safeguard against the turbulent economic landscape against the backdrop of Trump taking office and resultant tariff proposals. Another major factor that contributed to the surge was the Fed’s rate easing policy after the U.S. central bank cut rates by 50 basis points in September. The Fed officials expect two rate cuts by the end of this year. “Whilst buying gold may reduce central banks’ overall exposure to the dollar, we don’t think that the surge in central bank gold demand reflects a severe loss of confidence in the greenback,” analysts at Capital Economics said. “Instead, the perception of gold itself as a safe haven is probably the key driver of central bank demand. In any case, we think official sector purchases will support gold prices to an above-consensus $3,300 per ounce by end-2025.” Investor appetite for gold is surging, as reflected in the increased inflows to ETFs, which saw their biggest weekly inflow since March 2022, signaling a renewed rush toward the precious metal. “While North American ETFs have seen inflows, the broader trend suggests increasing demand from European investors seeking safe-haven assets due to political uncertainties,” Zumpfe said.”
On the day gold closed up $36.30 at $3122.80, and silver closed up $0.18 at $34.46.
On Tuesday the price of gold was again choppy, trading between $3095.00 and $3145.00 so we have developed a bearish trend which suggests traders are testing support at $3100.00. While this initial drop was large enough to get everyone’s attention it did not substantially change the current bullish sentiment to any great degree because traders bought the dip with enthusiasm and gold finished the day only slightly in the red. Still anxiety and risk aversion are not going away as Trump beats the tariff drum. These factors support gold at the higher end of its current trading range, and suggest higher prices are still in the cards.
The other influence providing some drag to higher prices in gold is interest rates. The Fed for now is standing pat. But they themselves see lower rates, especially if the US edges closer to economic slowdown. The smart money is betting on lower rates this year. Which should encourage higher gold prices as investors continue to seek safe haven protection.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to See Buyers but Looks a Touch Tired – “The gold market has seen a lot of buying over the last few sessions, but at this point in time, the market continues to see a lot of gravity-based issues appear. After all, no market can go straight up in the air forever. Technical Analysis – The gold market initially rallied during the trading session on Tuesday, only to turn around and show signs of hesitation. That doesn’t necessarily mean that gold is going to fall apart, but quite frankly, gold has gotten far too overextended, and a pullback would make quite a bit of sense. Quite frankly, I think that just offers opportunity down the road. The $3,000 level should now be the floor in the market, and I think you will have to look at it as such. I have no interest in shorting gold under any circumstance, because quite frankly, the geopolitical risks and the concerns when it comes to tariff wars, recessions, central banks cutting rates, they all line up to push gold higher over the longer term, but markets can only go in one direction for so long. And at this point, I’m still keeping an eye on the idea of the bullish flag that had been so prevalent in this market, which suggests that gold should eventually go looking to the $3,300 level, based on the “measured move.” That doesn’t mean that it will be easy, but it doesn’t also mean that we are going to get there overnight. But given enough time, I do think we will go there. There’s nothing on this chart that suggests that we can’t get there. But after three massive positive days, Tuesday looks like there’s a little bit of hesitation. And again, that makes perfect sense. Think of it as offering value. Silver Continues to See Volatile and Bullish Momentum – The silver market is a bit noisy in the early hours of Tuesday again, as we continue to see a lot of questions asked of where the economy is going. Remember, this is a market that is very dangerous at this point in time. Technical Analysis – Silver has gone back and forth during the course of the trading session on Tuesday in the early hours as we continue to try to fight our way higher. All things being equal, the $35 level, of course, is an area that we will continue to pay close attention to as the market has been so noisy that given enough time, I think eventually we have buyers come back in and try to push. But the question is, will the $33.33 level hold? At this point, it would seem so. I do think at this point in time, a bounce from here is very likely, but if we were to break down below there, then the 50 day EMA underneath is the next major support level. Silver, of course, is being dragged higher by gold overall. And of course, we have to worry about the questions when it comes to whether or not the economy is slowing down or whether or not global trade will continue to slow down. After all, we have seen a lot of headline risk out there, and that just causes chaos in markets like silver, which of course is extraordinarily volatile under the best of times anyway. Ultimately, I think this is a scenario where you’re looking at dips and potential buying opportunities, but you have to be very cautious with your position signs because silver can really punish you when you’re wrong about the direction of the market, and the overall risk appetite of traders.”
On the day gold closed down $3.90 at $3118.90, and silver closed down $0.30 at $34.16.
On Wednesday the price of gold was choppy but on the quiet side trading between $3115.00 and $3135.00 in an upward trend. By the end of the trading day, we were again at session highs, a plus for bullish sentiment. President Trump has created so much world tension that higher prices seem likely. I would continue to buy gold or silver bullion on significant dips and keep my eye on the bigger picture. Like I have said, current prices might seem cheap a decade from now. I would not take the last statement as a raging endorsement because there seems to be a lot of white noise within this pricing range, so anticipate volatility. But I would absolutely have a reasonable percentage of my net worth in the metals as we move forward from here.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to Be Bullish Despite Overextension – The gold market looks as if it is overextended, but at this point in time, we have to worry about tariffs, and the announcement at the end of the session in the USA. The market is overbought, but I am willing to buy pullbacks. Technical Analysis – The Gold market has initially rallied a bit during the trading session here on Wednesday but did give back a little bit of the gains as we see a lot of questions asked about what’s going to happen with these tariffs. To start with we’re in a major uptrend so none of this should be a surprise anyway, but having said that, traders also have to keep in mind that the Gold market is also moving on a global slowdown, or at least fears of it, central banks around the world cutting rates and of course concerns about the tariff wars increasing. With all of the geopolitical concerns out there, it should not be a huge surprise to see the gold has in fact found itself to be very strong, but we are a little extended at this point and I think all things being equal, we would probably be looking for some type of pullback and perhaps value down near the $3,000 level. That being said, there is a certain amount of concern out there because who knows what Trump will announce. So, I think today is going to be very noisy. I would love to see a pullback that I can take advantage of for value and just play it as such. Ultimately, this is a market that I think, given enough time, will go to the $3300 level based on the measured move of the bullish flag. I’m just looking for a better entry at this point if I’m not already long of gold. Silver Continues to See Grinding Action – The silver market continues to see a lot of grinding back and forth, as the market has to wait for tariff announcements coming out of America at the end of the session. Technical Analysis – Silver initially rallied during the trading session on Wednesday, but as you can see, the market has pulled back quite a bit. That being said, it’s worth noting that the $33.33 level is an area that a lot of people will be paying close attention to, as it’s been important multiple times. That being said, I also think that we could see absolute chaos in this market due to the fact that the so-called Liberation Day coming from the United States at the end of the trading session in New York will be very dangerous for risk appetite as Donald Trump is set to announce more tariffs. With that being the case, I think you have to be very cautious at the moment but recognize that we could end up seeing a pullback and a buying opportunity here. It just is a market that really at this point in time, I think you have to be very cautious with, although, let’s be honest, that’s normally the case with silver. If we were to break down below the $33 level, then we have to look at the 50 day EMA. On the upside, the $35 level is massive resistance and if we were to break above there, then silver could really start to launch. I don’t necessarily think that’s what’s going to happen easily, but I do think over the longer term, that’s probably what silver does as it is one of the more volatile assets out there.”
On the day gold closed up $21.00 at $3139.90, and silver closed up $0.34 at $34.50.
On Thursday the price of gold was extremely volatile, testing lows of $3060.00, jumping higher to $3130.00 and finally finishing the day significantly in the red. So, my usual admonition about caution remains in place. Expect higher levels of volatility and keep your seat belt fastened. As you can see from late last night through today’s cash market these large changes in price are certainly volatile, perhaps even violent in nature. They can and do come out or nowhere as the public ponders Trump’s next tariff move. What you are seeing here is an across the board liquidity crisis. In times like these safe haven investors may be forced to sell physical bullion to recover liquidity as equities take a beating and the world faces an uncertain future.
Reuters (Anmol Choubey) – Gold eases after record on knock-on effect of wider selloff – “Gold fell more than 2% on Thursday, easing from an all-time high, as a wider market selloff triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s import tariffs infected bullion traders. Spot gold fell 1.1% to $3,098.73 as of 10:04 a.m. EDT (1404 GMT) after earlier scaling a record of $3,167.57. Traders attributed the dip to some profit-taking and margin calls in other asset classes likely prompting investors selling some of their gold holdings to cover losses. “While the whole tariff imbroglio has weighed on the dollar and should be good for gold, but faced with potential margin calls in various markets, leveraged participants often have to sell whatever they can,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader. Trump’s tariffs drove a sharp slide in financial markets because of concerns they could dampen economic growth. However, gold’s overall trajectory appeared intact, with the safe haven having surged over $500 so far this year. David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures, termed gold’s moves “a pullback or retracement within the sideways to higher trend”. Central banks are expected to help sustain gold’s rally this year with buying aimed at further diversifying reserves away from the dollar due to risks stemming from Trump’s policies. But while the rally’s momentum may push prices higher in the first half, a mix of physical and financial market factors could pressure gold by end-2025, HSBC said in a note, forecasting prices to average $3,015. Silver slipped 5.6% to $32.12, its lowest since March 4. While it usually follows gold, silver is more exposed to wider market fluctuations considering its industrial applications. It is being pressured by demand concerns given the global selloff, said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures.” Platinum fell 3% to $954.17, and palladium lost 3.3% to $937.44.”
On the day gold closed down $42.90 at $3097.00, and silver closed down $2.66 at $31.84.
On Friday the price of gold again tested support at $3020.00, and as of this writing it was down $75.00. Even if you are an optimist, losing more than $100.00 in the last two days is no walk in the park. So, this has been a tough week for the bulls. Adding to the confusion is that no one saw this sudden weakness coming in either gold or silver. These sudden drops feel like traders pushed the panic button relative to asset liquidity. And I expect to see more price volatility because the Trump tariff bombardment is not finished. This market will get back on its feet in short order as interest rates will soon move lower, and the dollar will follow along. This process, however, will take a combination of time and patience, testing the bullish resolve to buy weakness.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to See Noisy Trading – The gold market fell hard in the early hours of Friday, just as it did on Thursday. However, there are a lot of reasons to think that the buyers will return again, with all of the fear and uncertainty out there. Technical Analysis – The gold market has crumbled a bit during the early hours on Friday after initially trying to rally, but really at this point in time, it’s very possible we may get a similar move to what we had seen during the Thursday session as gold has been very bullish for a multitude of reasons. And the selloffs typically get bought back due to concerns about the global economy, the tariff wars, etcetera. So, if central banks are in fact going to start cutting as well to help defend against these global tariff wars, then we have a situation where gold will probably do fairly well. With this being said, I think you have a situation where traders continue to look at gold as a safe haven. And I do think that you have to believe that gold is going to have a massive floor near the $3,000 level, the $3,000 level, of course, is an area that’s a large round psychologically significant figure and an area that a lot of traders will be looking at for potential entries. Previously, we had formed a bullish flag, the measured move reaches to the $3,300 level. And that is an area that I think we’ll be gunning for. That doesn’t mean we get there overnight. It doesn’t necessarily mean that it’s going to be easy to get there. But I do think that it is probably only a matter of time before we make that serious attempt to break out to the upside. Even when we do, then I think we will see a pretty significant barrier. Breaking that barrier opens up the possibility of a move to the $3,500 level. Silver Plunges Again on Friday – The silver market has seen a lot of early selling pressures on Friday, as the market continues to scramble to protect themselves from the tariff wars and the potential global recession. Technical Analysis – The silver market initially tried to rally a bit but then dropped towards the 200 day EMA. The question now is whether or not it will hold. This is just below the $31 level and quite frankly, the absolute destruction and dismantling of the silver market over the last couple of days has been quite breathtaking to watch. So, with that being said, I certainly wouldn’t be a buyer of silver. I still don’t know if I want to short it. I think chasing it all the way down here is probably a great way to lose money as well. So, with this being the case, I think you have a situation where traders will probably look for a couple of days of stability before trying to get long. If we close below the 200 day EMA, technically, that kicks off a potential downtrend and it could drop silver down to $28.75. We’ll just have to wait and see. The world is basically chaotic at the moment when it comes to trading, and the best trade often is to either trade in a very minuscule position or don’t trade at all. Silver is definitely in that category right now as the volatility has picked up so drastically. Silver, when it comes to precious metals, falls much quicker than gold. So, when precious metals do sell off, it’s generally silver I short, not gold. On the way up, I generally buy gold, although silver can give you better returns because of the volatility, it’s also all over the place most of the time.”
On the day gold closed down $85.00 at $3012.00, and silver closed down $2.72 at $2912.
Platinum closed down $40.50 at $902.00, and palladium closed down $22.90 at $896.20.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, June gold futures bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the contract high of $3,201.60. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below technical support at $3,031.00. First resistance is seen at $3,150.00 and then at the overnight high of $3,160.20. First support is seen at the overnight low of $3,089.30 and then at this week’s low of $3,073.50. May silver futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $33.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the December low of $29.405. First resistance is seen at $31.50 and then at $32.00. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $30.81 and then at $30.50.”
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