Commentary for Friday, Dec 6, 2024 (www.golddealer.com) – Today gold closed up $12.00 at $2638.60, and silver closed up $0.06 at $31.19. Gold opened with a mild upward bias today trading between $2628.00 and $2644.00. Not too hot and not too cold as they say and holding above $2600.00. Still, recent volatility should at least concern investors trying to decide if they should “double down” or “take profits” while patiently waiting for the December FOMC “adjustment”. This market has great long term promise, but at the moment lacks the buzz to create a Santa Clause rally. Last Friday gold closed at $2639.90 / silver at $30.11. On the week gold was down $1.30, and silver was higher by $1.08.
Please note that FedEx is no longer asking for delivery signatures. They are scanning IDs. We have complained to FedEx, but they remain resolute. Scanned identification is safer, but if you have a problem with this decision, please make your feelings known to FedEx. Unfortunately, the present delivery time for the USPS alternative is 2-3 weeks.
Should you decide to use our Delayed Delivery Program please talk with your service rep and understand how this program works. It is handy if you want to lock in the price “now” and insist on a new product – but is not for everyone. Just like us – you must pay upfront to “lock in” prices and you can’t “change” your mind. So, unless God has blessed you with patience, please ask your rep for other options and thank you for understanding.
On Monday the price of gold moved higher, touching $2650.00 in the early trade even as the dollar firmed, and the price of crude oil remained steady ($70.00) at the lower end of its current range. While gold remains above $2600.00 there are headwinds building over the latest Trump tariff warning to the nine BRICS nations.
Basically, if these countries want to sell within the US economy, they will be required to support the US dollar. This is not your typical bombast. The President will likely use his tariff power to support this challenge. Maybe this latest rift will encourage higher interest rates, driving gold lower. Or perhaps, as some analysts suggest, have the opposite effect, driving rates lower and pushing the price of gold higher remains to be seen. But this ride could turn bumpy in the short term. Over the longer term I believe traders will continue to look for higher prices. Gold prices will be underpinned by rising safe haven demand. The uncertain increase in volatility could just as easily lead to record highs early next year.
Reuters (Daksh Grover) – Gold drops 1% after four sessions of gains as dollar strengthens – “Gold dropped 1% on Monday, ending a four-session winning streak, weighed down by a robust U.S. dollar, as investors eyed upcoming economic data and remarks from Federal Reserve officials for clues on the future of U.S. interest rates. Spot gold was down 0.5% to $2,640.93 per ounce, as of 1207 GMT. It was down 1% earlier in the session. The dollar index gained 0.5%, on track for its best day in over a week, making greenback-priced bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies. “Some of the comments of President-elect Donald Trump towards the BRICS countries not to move away from the U.S. dollar are supporting the dollar and moderately weighing on the gold prices today,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. Trump on Saturday called on BRICS nations to pledge not to establish or endorse an alternative currency to the U.S. dollar, warning of 100% tariffs for non-compliance. Bullion fell over 3% in November, its steepest monthly drop since September 2023, amid fears that Trump’s tariff plans could prolong higher interest rates. The ongoing slowdown in U.S. economic activity is expected to prompt further Fed rate cuts in December, boosting investment demand and driving gold to $2,900/oz by mid-2025, Staunovo added. Major brokerages maintain their expectation of a 25 basis-point Fed rate cut in December, following PCE price index data aligning with market forecasts on Wednesday. Key U.S. economic events this week include job openings data, ADP employment report and non-farm payrolls. Speeches from Fed officials, including Chair Powell, will also draw attention. “Gold’s perceived status as a safe haven asset could continue to support demand – given ongoing policy uncertainty that could negatively impact the global economy, as well as various geopolitical tensions – along with purchases by central banks,” NAB analysts said in a note. Elsewhere, spot silver shed 0.5% to $30.44 per ounce, platinum ticked up by 0.1% to $947.15and palladium was flat at $978.55. U.S. gold futures fell 0.6% to $2,663.90.”
On the day gold closed down $5.00 at $2634.90, and silver closed up $0.34 at $30.45.
On Tuesday the price of gold opened choppy with a mild upward bias and managed to finish the day slightly in the green. This past month the price of gold seems to have settled midrange around $2642.00 and the technical picture favors the bulls in the near term. During the same timeframe the price of silver has also settled midrange around $30.77, but the experts claim the bulls and bears are on a level overall near term technical playing field.
I like both the gold and silver markets at current levels because traders have been buying weakness, yet investors may have to deal with higher interest rates created by growing tension within the Trump camp, a negative for both metals in the short term. Still, bullish patience may prove rewarding as insiders expect lower interest rates early next year. Unless the Fed “pauses”, if inflation proves tougher than expected. A possibility but I’m only lukewarm on the idea.
So how excited should you be about the price of gold and silver going into the holiday season? Well, the stage is set for higher prices, but the flip side of this coin suggests that the public could easily take profits thus reducing longer term risk. Why? Because overhead resistance at current levels for both gold and silver has traditionally been challenging.
Reuters (Daksh Grover) – Gold prices inch higher on Fed rate optimism with US data due – “Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday, as recovering expectations of a U.S. rate cut in December weighed on the dollar and Treasury yields ahead of economic data that could offer further signals on the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory. Spot gold rose 0.1% to $2,640.16 per ounce by 1242 GMT, after falling as much as 1% on Monday. U.S. gold futures gained 0.2% to $2,662.80. “Several factors are influencing gold’s price action, including expectations of a Fed rate cut in December, the 10-year Treasury yield hovering near its lowest level since October, and sustained safe-haven demand,” said Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades. Markets are pricing in a 73% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Dec. 17–18 meeting, up from 66% before Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Monday signaled support for a cut this month, citing inflation still forecast to fall to 2%. UBS said it expects the Fed to cut by 25 basis points in December, followed by another 100 bps of easing through 2025. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield ticked up but was hovering around a 1-month low, making non-yielding bullion more attractive. The dollar was down 0.2%. Investors will also be watching job openings data due at 1500 GMT, the ADP employment report on Wednesday, and Friday’s payrolls report. Gold, which does not pay any interest, historically performs well in low-interest rate environments and during periods of geopolitical uncertainty. In the Middle East, a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and militant group Hezbollah faltered as strikes killed nine in southern Lebanon following Hezbollah’s attack on Israel’s Shebaa Farms on Monday. “I anticipate gold prices to trade within a relatively narrow range, with resistance at $2,650 and support at $2,620,” Evangelista added. In other metals, spot silver added 1.1% to $30.82 per ounce, platinum rose 0.4% to $954.20, and palladium was up 0.8% at $988.75.”
On the day gold closed up $9.80 at $2644.70, and silver closed up $0.63 at $31.08.
On Wednesday the price of gold was again choppy this morning between $2636.00 and $2657.00, with silver offering a rather sleepy trade at current levels ($31.30). This bit of consolidation is healthy in that it suggests that traders remain cautious after recent volatility in both metals. Normally, with the December holiday season right around the corner investors would be looking for the typical Christmas rally in both gold and silver.
But I’m not that optimistic, I see a more subdued trade waiting for fresh data that might push the bullish or bearish needle between now and say the first quarter of 2025. After that, given this troubled world, President Trump, the Russians talking about a nuclear option and the Middle East escalation I would again turn bullish given the Fed outlook stays on the dovish side.
FXEmpire (James Hyerczyk) – Powell’s Speech vs. Friday’s NFP – Which Will Drive a Market Breakout? – “Gold prices remained flat on Wednesday as trading volume and volatility stayed low for the seventh consecutive session, signaling investor indecision ahead of major economic events. Market participants are closely watching U.S. jobs data and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech for insights into the central bank’s monetary policy outlook. Technical Levels Highlight Rangebound Trade – Gold has been rangebound since November 25, with support at $2629.13 to $2607.35 and resistance between $2663.51 and $2693.40. The current trend is down, with a main top at $2790.17 and a secondary lower top at $2721.42. A break above $2721.42 would signal an upward trend reversal, while a move below the nearest bottom of $2536.85 would confirm a downtrend. Adding to bearish sentiment, gold remains below the 50-day moving average at $2668.98, which is acting as resistance and controlling the intermediate trend. Dollar Strength and Geopolitical Risks Offset Each Other – The U.S. dollar index rose slightly, making gold pricier for holders of other currencies. However, geopolitical instability in South Korea and France has bolstered safe-haven demand for gold. South Korea faces political upheaval as lawmakers push for President Yoon Suk Yeol’s resignation following his brief declaration of martial law. In France, no-confidence motions against Prime Minister Michel Barnier have heightened political uncertainty. At 12:38 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $2642.81, down $1.08 or -0.04%.Gold has been rangebound since November 25, with support at $2629.13 to $2607.35 and resistance between $2663.51 and $2693.40. The current trend is down, with a main top at $2790.17 and a secondary lower top at $2721.42. A break above $2721.42 would signal an upward trend reversal, while a move below the nearest bottom of $2536.85 would confirm a downtrend. Adding to bearish sentiment, gold remains below the 50-day moving average at $2668.98, which is acting as resistance and controlling the intermediate trend. Market Awaits Critical Data and Powell’s Comments – Gold traders are eyeing the U.S. ADP employment report, due Wednesday, along with Powell’s address for clues about the Federal Reserve’s next move. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report and next week’s CPI data are also expected to influence the Fed’s decision on whether to cut rates at its December 18 meeting. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, traders currently see a 74% likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut. Federal Reserve officials have recently signaled support for future rate reductions as inflation eases. Lower interest rates typically enhance gold’s appeal by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Market Forecast – Gold prices are likely to remain rangebound in the short term unless upcoming jobs or inflation data shifts the outlook for Fed policy significantly. A break above resistance at $2693.40 could push prices higher, while failure to hold support at $2607.35 may trigger further declines. Traders should watch the ADP report and Powell’s comments for potential catalysts. For now, the outlook remains cautiously bearish.”
On the day gold closed up $9.10 at $2653.80, and silver closed up $0.43 at $31.51.
On Thursday the price of gold dipped lower threatening the $2620.00 support which is surprising considering that the dollar lost some steam today. Today is a good example of why traders remain cautious of these higher numbers as gold and silver settlement deals with the various bullish and bearish crosswinds. Like I said yesterday, expect a less robust trade in the metals through the holiday season. The Fed will soon cut interest rates by a quarter point. But traders have already factored this into today’s pricing model. So, no one expects much in the way of fireworks. But the rate cut does encourage the bullish scenario.
Gold and silver have reasons to move higher in 2025, but they also have reasons to move lower. What traders are looking for is some kind of “spark” to get this process moving. Without this change in the pricing model the metals may drift “sideways” which could increase investor selling in the shorter term. In the meantime, the volume numbers across our trading desk are just “ho-hum”, meaning the public remains patient.
Reuters (Anushree Ashish Mukherjee) – Gold holds steady as spotlight shifts to US payrolls data – “Gold prices steadied on Thursday as investors held back from placing big bets ahead of U.S. non-farm payrolls data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory as markets awaited this year’s final policy-setting meeting. Spot gold held its ground at $2,649.69 per ounce, as of 1221 GMT. U.S. gold futures also eased 0.1% to $2,673.30. The market’s focus is on initial jobless claims due later in the day and the U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, with the payrolls likely increasing by 200,000 jobs in the month after rising by only 12,000 in October. A robust NFP number is more or less priced in, and if we see weakness in the report, it could add some support to gold prices as the market is kind of pricing in that the U.S. economy is doing quite well, said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. Gold market is seeing “a relatively tight range. It does indicate the market is lacking a bit of oxygen, lacking a bit of directional input,” Hansen said. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that the U.S. economy is stronger than expected and suggested a more cautious stance towards interest rate cuts. Traders are pricing in a 74% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed’s Dec. 17-18 meeting, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Bullion, which does not pay any interest, historically performs well in a low-interest rate environment. “Gold prices could see a short-term rise toward $2,700 per ounce, driven by seasonal weakness in the U.S. dollar, which historically underperforms in December. However, a deeper correction in gold prices remains possible over the medium term,” said Zain Vawda, market analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA. Spot silver was up 0.1% at $31.32 per ounce. Platinum rose 0.2% to $942.95, and palladium fell 0.1% to $976.83.”
On the day gold closed down $27.20 at $2626.60, and silver closed down $0.38 at $31.13.
On Friday the price of gold developed a very mild upward bias, trading between $2628.00 and $2644.00. I think this market has plenty of support around $2600.00 and is looking for a reason to move higher. But until traders have a more defined feeling of the Fed’s next move gold will likely trade in a lackluster pattern perhaps even through the holidays.
Still, the support at $2600.00 is encouraging. Given the oddsmakers already expect a quarter point dip in interest rates in December I would not get too excited about the possibility of higher prices in either gold or silver. If traders see the expected dip in rates the price of gold and silver may only “drift” through January. But if the Fed, for whatever reason, decides to leave rates unchanged, there could be some downside in the metals and more settling.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to See Noise – “The gold market continues to see a lot of noise, as the market initially plunged, only to bounce back a bit. Ultimately, this is a situation where traders are probably going to be looking for value in this market. This is a situation where traders are following the longer-term trend, as well as the geopolitical issues that are worth following. Technical Analysis – The gold market initially plunged overnight but has stabilized a bit after the jobs number came out in the United States. The jobs number came in a little bit more hawkish than expected, but not enough to really cause a lot of noise. So, it’s more likely than not to be a situation where we go right back into consolidation. Even if we do pull back from here, the market still has plenty of support underneath, especially near the $2,600 level, the uptrend line, and then finally the $2,500 level. All things being equal, this is a market that if we can break above the $2,675 level, then we could open up a move towards the $2,725 level, which was the most recent swing high. Anything above there opens up the possibility of a move to $2,800. This is a market that’s been in an uptrend for quite some time, so there’s no reason to fight that. And of course, there are still plenty of geopolitical issues out there that I think keep gold in the spotlight, at least somewhat. And with this, I think you’ve got a market that is going to continue to try to go higher and with this, I think short-term dips will probably be looked at as potential value to pick up cheap ounces, if you will. I have no interest in trying to short this market anytime soon, as the market has been so bullish. Silver Continues to Threaten The Same Level – The silver market has seen a lot of noisy behavior over the last several weeks, but also continues to find that same area, the $31.50 level, as being very difficult to finally break above. However, if we do, this is a market that could take off. Technical Analysis – Silver has been very noisy during the week, initially falling towards the $30 level before turning around and showing live again. The market had bounced not only from the $30 level, but also the uptrend line. At this point, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of upward momentum, and if we can clear the $31.50 level, then we could go looking to the $34 level. If we were to break down below the $30 level, then I think silver could fall toward the 50-week EMA, an indicator that has been important more than once. In general, the jobs number came out slightly stronger than anticipated, but not enough to get overly concerned. So, I think at this point, silver will probably be free to go higher, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that it goes straight up in the air. A little bit of sideways action and buying on the dips probably continues to be the way forward, especially on shorter term charts. But longer term charts, you’re going to have to be a little bit more patient with the momentum. If we do rally a bit at this point in time, I suspect that we will see plenty of noise to the upside. But again, I think that there will be momentum. We are in an uptrend and that has not changed, so I do like the idea of this market continuing to hug the trend line and then eventually trying to test the recent swing highs.”
On the day gold closed up $12.00 at $2638.60, and silver closed up $0.06 at $31.19.
Platinum closed down $7.20 at $930.00, and palladium closed down $9.80 at $960.30.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, February gold bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at this week’s high of $2,748.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,600.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $2,682.00 and then at $2,700.00. First support is seen at $2,650.00 and then at today’s low of $2,635.60. March silver futures bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $32.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $30.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $32.07 and then at $32.50. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $31.39 and then at $31.00.”
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