Commentary for Friday, March 14, 2025 – Today gold closed down $8.45 at $2986.05, and silver closed down $0.40 at $33.79. Even though gold has been in a generally bullish trend for months it is hard to believe that from last Friday through this Friday it gained more than $100.00 and set a new all-time record high. And all this bullish happiness was the result of fresh safe haven demand created over a new round of Trump tariff threats. And perhaps the early fear of recession which would force the Fed to lower interest rates. Last Friday gold closed at $2904.70 / silver at $32.55. On the week gold was higher by $81.35, and silver was higher by $1.24.
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On Monday gold opened choppy, on both sides of $2900.00, eventually drifted lower testing support at $2880.00 and finished the day mildly in the red. Most traders like gold’s technical picture but it has been typical of late that numbers above $2900.00 tend to cool a bit. I would not say the public is standing in line to buy bullion at these numbers, but the bigger buyers appear comfortable enough to aggressively buy the dips. This would indicate that safe haven demand is alive and well. I don’t see $4000.00 gold anytime soon but psychologically it would be nice if we could finally settle the $3000.00 question. Still, even at these lofty prices we do not see many large sellers in either gold or silver. There are a few but generally holders of physical bullion remain optimistic, especially in the longer term and are content to wait for a better deal.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to Build a Flag – “The gold market continues to be very positive overall, but at this point in time, the market is also building a bit of a bullish flag. At this point, short-term pullback continue to offer potential value. Technical Analysis – Gold markets have gone back and forth a little bit in the early hours of Monday as we continue to hang around the $2,900 level. That being said, you should also start to look at the chart through the prism of whether or not we are forming a bullish flag. It does look like a bullish flag at least so far, and therefore I think a lot of buyers will continue to be attracted to this market. Even if we pull back, the market is likely to continue to see the 50-day EMA below as significant support as it is right at the bottom of the flag near the $2,820 level. Short-term pullbacks should be buying opportunities in gold, which of course has done quite well for quite some time. And this little bit of consolidation does make a certain amount of sense, considering that we have to digest those gains. If the market were to break higher and maybe above the $2,950 level, then that kicks off the bullish flag thesis and it could open up a move all the way to the $3,300 level before it’s all said and done. I would expect the $3,000 level to offer a little bit of resistance though, I don’t think we just slice through there without options traders having their say. In general, though, the best way to look at this chart is that gold’s in a significant uptrend and gold has been in a significant uptrend for some time. So therefore, there’s no need to fight. I like buying only, not selling, and I like buying on dips even more than buying here. Silver Continues to Look Bullish – The silver market continues to look bullish overall, as the market continues to pay close attention to the US dollar, and the interest rate markets. Technical Analysis – The silver market has gone back and forth during the early hours on Monday as we continue to hang around just above the $32 level. That being said, this is a market that I think will continue to be very noisy, but I also recognize that the uptrend is still very much intact. Keep in mind that traders continue to look at silver as both a precious metal and an industrial one. Because of this, I think silver will lag gold in general mainly due to the fact that the industrial part of the equation is still a bit of a question mark right now, mainly due to the idea that we could be heading into a massive recession. Ultimately short-term pullbacks I do think open up the possibility of buying opportunities especially near the 50-day EMA which is near the $31.64 level. If we do rally from here, instead of pulling back, the $33.33 level could be a little bit of resistance, and if we can break above that, then I think it opens up silver to go to the $35.00 level. In general, this is going to move based on the idea of what’s going on with the interest rates and the US dollar as well. So, if the US dollar does continue to shrink, that will help silver. All things being equal, I don’t have any interest in shorting the silver market, at least not until we’re below the $31.00 level, something that doesn’t look very likely in the near term. Anything below there, question the overall strength of the trend. But right now, it looks like it’s still very buy on the dip.”
On the day gold closed down $13.70 at $2891.00, and silver closed down $0.27 at $32.28.
On Tuesday the price of gold moved higher reacting to a weaker dollar. Safe haven demand will likely continue to firm, reacting to changing tariff policy and recent weakness in stocks and equities. The price of gold opened at $2895.00 and quickly moved to a session high of $2920.00. Backed by a solid technical outlook the bulls remain confident and ready for $3000.00. The less sanguine will still fear tough overhead resistance but remain patient.
Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad and Sara Qureshi) – Safe-haven gold firms on weaker dollar, growth concerns – Gold prices gained nearly 1% on Tuesday amid a weaker dollar and economic slowdown worries due to tariff wars, while investors strapped in for a key inflation print that could shed light on U.S. monetary policy move. Spot gold firmed 0.9% to $2,915.00 an ounce as of 1246 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.8% to $2,921.10. The U.S. dollar index hit its lowest level since early November. A softer dollar makes greenback priced-bullion more affordable for other currency holders. “Gold is likely to remain supported amid ongoing market uncertainties, bolstering demand for the safe-haven asset. However, any positive developments in Russia-Ukraine negotiations could reduce risk premiums,” said Zain Vawda, market analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA. The tariff policies implemented by U.S. President Donald Trump against key trading partners have caused significant volatility in global markets and heightened concerns about economic growth. Bullion is considered a hedge against uncertainties and tends to thrive in a low-interest environment since it is a non-yielding asset. Market attention is also on U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday and Producer Price Index (PPI) print on Thursday. According to a Reuters poll, February’s CPI is expected to have climbed 0.3%. Unless the data significantly deviates from expectations, its impact is likely to be short-lived, Vawda added. Traders are currently expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in June. FEDWATCH “Gold price is already trading at a very high level due to the sharp rise since the start of the year, which limits the upside potential,” Commerzbank said in a note. Spot silver added 1.3% to $32.53. Platinum was up 1.7% at $973.44 and palladium gained 0.2% to $944.70. Bank of America said in a note that lingering concerns over trade disputes may well mean that PGMs (platinum group metals) get stranded in the U.S. for a bit longer.
On the day gold closed up $21.90 at $2912.90, and silver closed up $0.61 at $32.89.
On Wednesday the price of gold remained steady in the early trade, trading between $2910.00 and $2920.00. But surprisingly it quickly jumped to session highs of $2939.00 as the world wonders how further tariff exchanges between world powers will change bullish sentiment. This latest bullishness is important because it adds fuel to the notion that $3000.00 gold is alive and well. In gold’s favor the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by a quarter of a point. The latest CPI inflation data suggests that inflation is cooling but is still an issue, a plus for gold in the longer term. But in the shorter term it might suggest that the Fed will drag its feet with interest rates. But what supports the price of gold even at these lofty levels is safe haven demand. And the possibility of lower interest rates. Our walk in trade has slowed considerably because of the weather. Sometimes heavy rain and gusty winds in LA for the last few days.
On Wednesday the price of gold Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold holds ground after cooler US inflation data – “Safe-haven gold held its ground on Wednesday, aided by tariff uncertainty and a cooler inflation report that keep bets for a U.S. rate cut intact. Spot gold was up 0.1% at $2,917.93 an ounce as of 1258 GMT. U.S. gold futures inched up 0.1% $2,923.80. Data showed that U.S. consumer price index rose 0.2% last month after accelerating 0.5% in January. However, the improvement is likely temporary against the backdrop of aggressive tariffs on imports that are expected to raise the cost of most goods in the months ahead. “Gold has been resilient but stuck in a range in recent weeks; whether it can break higher on this CPI report will be an important signal,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader. “In the medium term, the uncertainty will keep gold supported so any sharp dips will be bought.” On the trade policies front, President Donald Trump’s increased tariffs on all U.S. steel and aluminum imports took effect on Wednesday, stepping up a campaign to reorder global trade in favor of the U.S. and drawing swift retaliation from Europe. Last year, the Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by 100 basis points. Financial markets expect the Fed to resume cutting rates in June because of the deteriorating economic outlook, after pausing in January. FEDWATCH Non-yielding gold thrives in a low interest environment and is considered a safe investment during periods of economic and geopolitical turmoil. The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and weekly jobless claims data due on Thursday are the next data sets on investors’ radar. Spot silver added 0.7% to $33.16 an ounce. Silver should outperform gold in our base case of a modest recovery in manufacturing activity, although a sharper slowdown in U.S. growth is a key risk, UBS said in a note. Platinum gained 1.5% at $990.00 and palladium rose by 0.7% to $952.23.”
On the day gold closed up $26.20 at $2939.10, and silver closed up $0.59 at $33.48.
On Thursday the price of gold moved higher as the US PPI (Producer Price Index) indicates that wholesale inflation ticked down in February according to Yahoo Finance. The price of gold dipped on the open, testing $2934.00 but quickly rose to session highs and closing at a new all-time record of $2984.30 up $45.20 on the day. Obviously bullish sentiment remains firm as investors wait patiently for $3000.00 gold. Silver went along for the ride up $0.57 at $34.05. It’s interesting that the public is not selling much, even at these lofty prices, which suggests that new record highs are likely this year. This view is not universal but is held by most US investors, supported by strong technical evidence and the uncertainty over Trump’s latest tariff fireworks. And here is one for the rumor mills – apparently “the Trump effect” has caused Russia to rethink in critical stockpiles and in so doing has added for the first time silver bullion to the pile. There are other well founded reasons for higher silver prices. Recent talk of a technical break to the upside , rumored shortages, and growing use in the “green trade” like solar applications. It is still raining hard in LA so I would expect a continued slowdown in the walk in trade.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to Climb – “The gold market looks strong in the early hours of Thursday, as the PPI numbers in the US have fallen a bit short. At this point in time, it is likely that we will continue to see a lot of noise, but overall upward pressures in this market. Technical Analysis – The gold market has shown itself to be strong yet again as we continue to reach towards the all-time highs. As we are breaking out of a bullish flag, it is in theory going to kick off a so-called measured move all the way to the $3,300 level. That being said, I would fully anticipate that the 3,000 level above will be a bit of a barrier that’s going to be difficult to overcome just through psychology and of course options trading. Short-term pullback should see plenty of support near the $2,900 level. And that of course is something that I would watch very closely. Specially as the 50-day EMA is starting to race towards there as well. Nonetheless, I think you’ve got a situation with gold as a safety trade. I think you also have to keep in mind that there are a lot of concerns about the Ukraine war if it is going to continue. And then after that, of course, you have the US dollar struggling as of late. Debt issues around the world continue to be a massive problem. So really, I can’t make an argument from a fundamental standpoint against gold at the moment. So, the question now more or less is going to be, can we clear the $2,950 level? If and when we do, this is a market that’s poised to go much higher. And quite frankly, if you don’t have at least some of your portfolio, you are certainly cheating yourself. Silver Continues to See Buyers on Dips Despite Sluggish Thursday Morning – The silver market continues to see a lot of noise, but at the end of the day, it is likely that the silver market will continue to see buyers on dips. The trend is still here, and therefore you should be looking at drops in price as value. Technical Analysis – The $33.33 level continues to be important in the silver market and it is telling that we are sitting there or just below there during the early hours on Thursday. It’s also telling that we have pulled back a bit. So I think at this point in time, silver is going to remain a very much buy on the dip type of opportunity. I think a short-term pullback at this point in time offers value that a lot of traders will be paying close attention to, especially if the US dollar were to continue falling. Keep in mind that silver is also used as a precious metal at times, but I look at it more or less as an industrial commodity. The question now is whether or not things are slowing down and not to have people worry about whether or not demand for silver is going to remain healthy. This is a balance between traders trying to find protection from depreciating currencies and trying to play a potential growth scenario. I think growth is going to slow down. So, this is probably going to follow gold more than anything else, which is right on the verge of making an all the time as I record this. So, with that, I like the idea of buying silver on dips as value. And I look at the 20 day EMA and the $32.35 level as potential support levels. And that assumes that we can even get there. I don’t think we will, I think this is going to be a quick drop followed by a lot of traders coming in to pick up a bit of value here in this market.”
On the day gold closed up $45.20 at $2984.30, and silver closed up $0.57 at $34.05.
On Friday the price of gold continued to power up as it threatened $3005.00 in early trading. But traders sold this rally, and prices tested support, which held up at $2985.00. But it finally finished the day mildly in the red. Traders are not getting crazy which is typical in a transitional metal’s market. This latest move to the upside is the reaction to the “fear factor”. There is a ton of fiat paper money being printed every hour both here and worldwide. I expect even higher prices in gold and silver over the long term. In the meantime, it makes sense if this market cools off before getting ready for $4000.00 gold. It’s surprising but we have not seen much bullion selling across our trading desk. I expected sellers to be standing in line, but this is not the case. This latest Reuters commentary may provide a reason. US consumer sentiment near 2-1/2-year low; inflation expectations surge – “U.S. consumer sentiment plunged to a nearly 2-1/2-year low in March and inflation expectations soared amid worries that President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, which have ignited a trade war, would boost prices and undercut the economy.”
Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold pops above $3,000/oz for first time in historic safe-haven rally – “Gold broke through the key $3,000 barrier on Friday for the first time as investors piled on to a historic rally in the safe haven asset to seek cover from economic uncertainty sparked by US President Donald Trump’s tariff war. Spot gold rose 0.1% to $2,991.00 an ounce at 9:42 am ET (1342 GMT) after hitting an all-time high of $3,004.86. Gold’s surge past the $3000 milestone was driven by “beleaguered investors seeking the ultimate safe-haven asset given Trump’s tumult on stock markets,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader. Traditionally viewed as a safe store of value during geopolitical turmoil, bullion has risen nearly 14% so far this year, driven in part by concerns over the impact of Trump’s tariffs and a selloff in stock markets. Trump’s protectionist policies have unsettled global markets, with U.S. stocks witnessing a weeklong sell-off, sending the S&P 500 plunging into correction territory, losing $4 trillion. “Real asset money managers, particularly in the West, needed a strong stock market and economic slowdown scare to return to gold — and that’s happening now,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. Gold has also been supported by central bank demand, with key buyer China building its bullion reserves for a fourth straight month in February. “Central banks continue record-level gold acquisitions, seeking to diversify away from an increasingly volatile U.S. dollar,” said GoldCore CEO, David Russell. Expectations of monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve have also helped zero-yield gold. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged next week, although traders are betting on cuts to resume in June. However, gold could see a significant correction, “when a resolution to trade issues appears and asset markets recover.” Wong said. In other metals, silver added 0.3% to $33.9 an ounce, platinum gained 0.3% to $997.00 and palladium firmed 2.1% to $978.18.”
On the day gold closed down $8.45 at $2986.50, and silver closed down $0.40 at $33.79.
Platinum closed down $11.60 at $998.40, and palladium closed up $6.40 at $968.70.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, April gold futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $3,100.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,900.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of $3,017.10 and then at $3,025.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $2,994.30 and then at $2,974.00. May silver futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the October 2024 high of $35.80. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at this week’s low of $32.215. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $34.85 and then at $35.00. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $34.425 and then at $34.00.”
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