Commentary for Friday, Feb 14, 2025 – Today gold closed down $42.30 at $2883.60, and silver closed up $0.15 at $32.80. Considering the whirlwind of contradicting price data which has bombarded the public since last Friday, it is not hard to imagine that the bears knocked on the trading door today. The combination of overhead resistance, lower interest rates and world jitters are powerful and confusing forces which create an unstable market. Today’s dip to the downside might also suggest that gold is overextended. These events are commonplace in a generally bullish market like this one. If fresh speculative money however begins to dry up this dip could turn “sideways” as insiders wait this one out. I’m not throwing $3000.00 gold out of the window this year, there are too many reasons for gold and silver to move higher. But the bulls might need a bit more patience. Just a reminder that we will be closed this coming Monday Feb the 17th for Presidents Day. The Post Office and commodity markets will also be closed. Last Friday gold closed at $2867.30 / silver at $32.34. On the week gold closed up $16.30, and silver closed up $0.46.
Please note that FedEx is no longer asking for delivery signatures. They are scanning IDs. We have complained to FedEx, but they remain resolute. Scanned identification is safer, but if you have a problem with this decision, please make your feelings known to FedEx. Unfortunately, the present delivery time for the USPS alternative is 2-3 weeks.
Should you decide to use our Delayed Delivery Program please talk with your service rep and understand how this program works. It is handy if you want to lock in the price “now” and insist on a new product – but is not for everyone. Just like us – you must pay upfront to “lock in” prices and you can’t “change” your mind. So, unless God has blessed you with patience, please ask your rep for other options and thank you for understanding.
On Monday the price of gold reacted to further Trump threats moving from $2877.00 to $2910.00 and setting a new high on safe haven demand. Traders are now within a striking distance of $3000.00. If you were one of those that believed Trump would be good for the price of gold you were right, at least on the short term. Gold made new highs despite a firm Dollar Index since last Wednesday. You will get a much better idea as to what inflation is doing mid-week as the CPI (Consumer Price Index) and the PPI (Producer Price Index) are made public. Tariffs can cut both ways when it comes to pricing gold. If inflation is weaker, it may inflate gold prices, if stronger it may slow this latest surge to higher levels. With a strong technical picture, momentum and safe haven demand on its side traders remain optimistic. Still the smart money will approach these fresh records with caution. What Trump giveth he can taketh away.
Reuters (Anmol Choubey) – Gold soars beyond $2,900 as Trump threatens fresh tariffs – “Gold prices continued their record rally on Monday and broke through the key $2,900 level for the first time, driven by safe-haven demand as U.S. President Donald Trump’s new tariff threats amplified trade war and inflation concerns. Spot gold surged 1.6% to $2,905.25 per ounce, as of 09:43 a.m. ET (1443 GMT), after hitting a record high of $2,910.99 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures jumped 1.5% to $2,930.90. “Obviously the tariff war is behind the rise; it just reflects more uncertainty and more tension in the global trade situation,” said Marex analyst Edward Meir. Trump announced plans on Sunday to impose an additional 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports. He also said he would announce reciprocal tariffs this week, matching rates imposed by other countries and applying them immediately. Tariffs may exacerbate U.S. inflation, with investors awaiting U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data due later in the week. If the CPI and PPI data surprise on the downside, it may weigh on the dollar and inflate gold prices, while an upside surprise could push up U.S. yields and strain gold, albeit mildly due to the market’s resilience and buyer interest during dips, Meir said. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is also due to testify before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. Bullion has already hit its seventh record high this year, driven by Trump’s tariff threats, which have fueled uncertainty over global growth, trade wars, and high inflation, prompting investors to turn seek bullion gold as a safe-haven asset. Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, said gold’s 45-degree rally since December might create a self-fulfilling prophecy of further price increases, potentially forcing BLF to raise its forecast to $3,250 or $3,500. Spot silver rose 1% to $32.12 per ounce after hitting a three-month high on Friday. Platinum added 1.1% to $986.80, and palladium gained 2.2% to $985.50.”
On the day gold closed up $47.00 at $2914.30, and silver closed up $0.05 at $32.39.
On Tuesday the price of gold drifted lower in the early trade, moving from $2930.00 to $2885.00 in what looks like a round of profit taking after yesterday’s significant jump to the upside, as investors and paper traders react to continued Trump barking. But interestingly the day finished only mildly in the red, a bullish plus. Some traders believe the current bullish trade is getting crowded. Perhaps. But I’m not sold on this idea considering the renewed excitement created over just the possibility of $3000.00 gold. Across our trading desk today the dollar volume of gold bullion sellers increased dramatically. In the physical bullion business, I believe that profit taking will usually temper bullish sentiment to some degree.
Reuters (Anmol Choubey) – Gold takes a breather after record run on trade war fears – “Gold prices slipped on Tuesday as investors booked profits following a record high yet remained bullish amidst fears of a global trade war spurred by U.S. President Donald Trump’s new tariffs. Spot gold fell 0.4% to $2,896.53 per ounce as of 08:47 a.m. ET (1347 GMT), after hitting a peak of $2,942.70 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures fell 0.4% to $2,923.50. “Just seeing some profit-taking from the shorter term futures traders… the market’s becoming a bit overextended and just due for some downside corrective pressure and some chart consolidation,” said Jim Wyckoff, a senior market analyst at Kitco Metals. rump substantially raised tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to a flat 25% “without exceptions or exemptions” in a move he hopes will aid struggling industries in the United States, but which also risks sparking a multi-front trade war. Traders are keeping an eye on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony later in the day and Wednesday’s U.S. inflation data for fresh clues on the interest rate outlook in the world’s largest economy. A Reuters poll showed the Fed was expected to wait until next quarter before cutting rates again. Tariffs could fuel U.S. inflation and postpone rate cuts. “Higher than expected inflation readings could extend the rate pause by the Fed, which could cause gold’s performance to moderate in the short term,” said Ryan McIntyre, senior portfolio manager at Sprott Asset Management. Bullion is considered a hedge against inflation, but higher interest rates dampen the non-yielding asset’s appeal. Given any new proclamations from President Trump, the potential uncertainty could sustain prices, and profit-taking scenarios, like today’s, might be seen by bullish traders as a buying opportunity during a price dip, Wyckoff said. Elsewhere, gold leasing rates in India hit a record high, tracking the overseas market, where rates have jumped due to a supply crunch as banks divert the precious metal to the United States in a bid to avoid potential tariffs. Among other metals, spot silver fell 1.6% to $31.53 per ounce, platinum eased 0.8% to $986.20, and palladium shed 0.7% to $976.00”
On the day gold closed down $1.80 at $2912.50, and silver closed down $0.16 at $32.23.
On Wednesday the price of gold turned very choppy in the early trade, initially moving to session lows of $2865.00 and quickly erasing early losses and returning to session highs of $2920.00. This kind of action might have professionals scratching their heads. But if you fit the puzzle together and add a dash of patience, the outcome clears, the key being is that it makes more sense to look at the general trends – which is higher in gold.
It’s the paper traders who are faced with a changing combination of higher inflation; the latest CPI shows a rise of 3% which initiated further profit taking. These higher inflation numbers increase speculation the Fed will turn hawkish relative to interest rates. A short term negative to bullish sentiment. Still, gold’s solid technical picture suggests higher prices, and while this is not a guarantee analysts believe that Trump tariffs will eventually be inflationary.
I perceive the bullish glass to be half full not half empty. The case for higher gold and silver remains strong because of the massive and still rising US debt. Today’s pricing action is positive because traders continue to test $3000.00 gold. I don’t like to get ahead of myself in climbing the proverbial “wall of worry”, but $4000.00 gold may be closer than you think.
Reuters (Anmol Choubey) – Gold drops after hot US inflation data, but trade concerns loom large – “Gold prices slipped on Wednesday after a rise in U.S. consumer prices boosted the likelihood of the Federal Reserve maintaining higher interest rates, but safe-haven bullion pared much of the earlier losses as trade war concerns kept investors on the edge. Spot gold eased 0.2% to $2,893.87 per ounce as of 09:58 a.m. ET (1458 GMT). U.S. gold futures fell 0.4% to $2,920.60. Prices dropped over 1% after data showed the U.S. consumer price index jumped 0.5% last month, more than expected, reinforcing the Fed message that it was in no rush to resume cutting interest rates amid growing uncertainty over the economy. “With today’s CPI data coming in hotter-than-expected, that has put weight on the gold market. Obviously at this point, any expectation that the market would have had of any type of rate cut later this year has now been put down,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. Higher interest rates tend to weigh on bullion, increasing its opportunity cost as it yields no interest. While “higher interest rate storyline provided a little bit of pressure on gold, the trend remains positive, and trade concerns continue to drive the market.” After raising steel and aluminum tariffs to 25% earlier this week, U.S. President Donald Trump’s advisers are now finalizing plans for reciprocal tariffs. Gold prices have marched into uncharted territory as bulls latch on to economic uncertainty created by U.S. import tariff plans, but behind the prize of hitting a record $3,000 per ounce, some flags of a bear case are also being planted. Despite a minor selloff, even a drop of a few hundred dollars from near $3,000 isn’t catastrophic, said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, adding that with concerns about inflation, debt, and geopolitics, people are still driven to invest in gold. Spot silver shed 0.7% to $32.05 per ounce and palladium fell 0.3% to $973.11, while platinum added 0.7% to $990.10.”
On the day gold closed down $3.50 at $2909.00, and silver closed up $0.47 at $32.70.
On Thursday the price of gold in typical fashion moved between $2906.00 and $2930.00, still looking for that magic $3000.00 but not making the mark because overhead resistance is tougher than most traders initially believed. Still, gold remained firm on the day as the PPI (Producer Price Index) surprised to the upside, suggesting that inflation is alive and well.
Fed Reserve Chair Powell handed the bears fresh meat by saying that the Fed was in no hurry to lower interest rates, a negative for higher prices in the short term. This confused situation is magnified as Trump announced, “reciprocal tariffs”. Reciprocal tariffs are taxes on imported goods the U.S. government plans to levy against global trading partners that are equal to the existing tariffs foreign countries have levied against American goods. In today’s question and answer session the President’s answer as when these will become effective was vague.
Then there is the rumor that he and Putin are carving up the Ukraine in an unholy fashion is making the European Union nervous. This scenario supports further safe haven demand. The technical picture for gold remains positive. The world needs physical gold bullion in their hands, just in case the “doom and gloom” scenario comes crashing through the front door. Not that I expect this economic situation to blow up, but I do see record highs this year. In the meantime, don’t think that because gold and silver are at records highs, you have missed the chance to own real money in the form of gold or silver bullion. In my opinion it will not be long before current overhead resistance turns into long term support and this classic pricing cycle repeats.
Reuters (Daksh Gover) – Gold rises on trade war jitters; focus now on US PPI data – “Gold rose on Thursday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and growing worries over U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff plans, which could heighten global trade tensions, while investors eyed another set of inflation data. Spot gold added 0.5% to $2,917 per ounce as of 1158 GMT, moving back towards its record peak of $2,942.70 hit on Tuesday. U.S. gold futures firmed 0.6% to $2,944.80. On Wednesday, gold prices fell more than 1% after stronger-than-expected U.S. consumer price index for January but rebounded later as ongoing trade war uncertainties kept the safe-haven metal’s demand intact. Trump announced plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on countries that levy duties on U.S. imports, expected Wednesday or Thursday. “Trump is unpredictable and, as long as uncertainty remains in the market, gold will continue to receive support,” said Ajay Kedia, director at Kedia Commodities, Mumbai. “Overall, the dollar index is currently under pressure, which has been supportive for gold.” The dollar index fell 0.2%, making greenback-priced gold less expensive for foreign buyers. Investors are now focused on the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data due at 1330 GMT, followed by Friday’s retail sales report, for further economic clues. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chair Powell, at his second congressional hearing this week, reiterated that the central bank was in no rush to cut interest rates. “Market is convinced that there is very limited room for the Fed to ease; Fed funds futures trimmed rate cut expectation to 29bps for this year, with the chance of a 25bp cut priced at 78% by September and at 94% by October,” OCBC analysts. Bullion is seen as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainties, but higher interest rates tarnish the non-yielding asset’s allure. ANZ expects gold to touch a record high of $3,000 per ounce in 2025. Spot silver was $32.24 per ounce. Platinum added 0.9% to $1,000.94 and palladium firmed 0.9% to $981.95.”
On the day gold closed up $16.90 at $2925.90, and silver closed down $0.05 at $32.65 .
On Friday gold prices were steady in early trading but soon dropped to session lows of $2885.00. Not the best of news going into the weekend. On the other hand, gold had two strong days of price gains this week and silver broke out, enjoying 3.5 month highs. That is enough ammunition to keep the rank and file hopeful. Monday (Presidents Day) is a national holiday, and these markets will be closed so next week will be a short week.
In the meantime, keep your eyes on interest rates. If you believe the Fed will only provide a modest cut in rates between now and the end of this year the price of gold will likely be stymied below all-time highs. Unless a new interest rate dynamic appears in the US or other parts of the world which can create fresh speculation prompted by the “fear factor”. You would think President Trump would have already created that “fear factor” but our sales volumes in both gold and silver suggest just the opposite. The public has not “bought” or “sold” to any great degree this week. They have adopted a “wait and see” attitude. The slowing of daily traffic visiting the store was also hampered because of weather – it has poured these past few days.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Is a Little Extended – “The gold market continues to see a lot of noisy trading, as the market has been acting as a buffer for those worried about tariffs and trade wars at the moment. Technical Analysis – The gold market initially did try to rally a bit during the trading session on Friday, but it turned around and showed signs of hesitation. At this point in time, the market is likely to see a lot of noisy behavior, and the $2,900 level is an area that I think opens up the possibility of a potential floor. If the market were to break down below the hammer from the Wednesday session, then it opens up a pullback to the $2,800 level. I think at this point, you see a market that is a little stretched and probably will have to consolidate a bit in order to build up further pressure. I’m not somebody who is going to look to short this just because it’s overextended. I think the real play here is to hope for a little bit of a pullback so that you can find value underneath, especially if, or somehow, we get all the way back to the $2,800 level. As things stand right now, though, I just don’t see that happening. And I do think that we either go sideways or we rip to the upside. I still have a target of $3,000 when it comes to the gold market, and I think we’ll probably get there a lot quicker than we thought. But all things being equal, this is a market that has run pretty far in a short amount of time, so I do think that maybe a little bit of caution here is the way to go. If you already are in a long position for gold, you’re sitting very pretty at this point. Silver Breaks Out on Friday – The silver market has rallied quite nicely during the session on Friday, as we continues to see a lot of noisy pressure to the upside. Silver looks likely to be “buy on the dips.” Technical Analysis – Silver has broken significantly during the Friday session to the upside as it looks like we continue to see a lot of pressure. The $32.35 level of course has been a massive barrier and ultimately the market is likely to continue to see a lot of upward pressure. Short-term pullbacks will certainly attract attention now that we have broken out and pretty much everybody has noticed it. And silver is now outperforming gold, at least in the short term, which is interesting. But having said that, I think you’ve got a situation where you have to be very cautious because silver can rip in one direction or the other quite viciously when you are not paying attention. So, position sizing and risk management is paramount in this market. Nonetheless, this breakout is a simple continuation of the longer term uptrend that we have been in. And we of course will have to pay attention to any correlation with the US dollar as it can have a major influence on where we go from here. I don’t like the idea of shorting silver, although when I do short precious metals, silver is the first one I do it with. But at this point in time, I think you’ve got a buy on the dip move, probably going all the way up to about $35.00 where we will face a massive challenge. We already have given back quite a bit of the gains for the day, but I think part of this is probably the fact that we hit a pocket of air on the chart.”
On the day gold closed down $42.30 at $2883.60, and silver closed up $0.15 at $32.80.
Platinum closed down $23.90 at $1009.80, and palladium closed down $10.30 at $1005.00.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, April gold futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending up on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $3,000.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,800.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $2,964.10 and then at the contract high of $2,968.50. First support is seen at the overnight low of $2,947.30 and then at Thursday’s low of $2,925.80. March silver futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the October 2024 high of $35.53. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at this week’s low of $31.65. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $34.24 and then at $34.50. Next support is seen at $33.50 and then at $33.00.”
Brothers and Sisters, thank you for your friendship. If you have unusual circumstances, need cash or a special favor – talk to Harry or Eric or Ken Slater. We are now back to our traditional business model. Thank you for your patience. Blessings. Richard Schwary
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