Commentary for Friday, March 7, 2025 – Today gold closed down $11.90 at $2904.70, and silver closed down $0.51 at $32.55. The price of gold got off to a great start early this week, as uncertainty increased over President Trump’s tariff policies. But then it seemed to lose its way as profit taking deflated the generally positive bullish sentiment to a small degree. And while gold is still trading in record territory, and its technical picture supports even higher prices, it seems to have lost some short term mojo and is still working on that magic $3000.00 number. Last Friday gold closed at $2836.80 / silver at $31.22. On the week gold was higher by $67.90, and silver was higher by $1.33.
Please note that FedEx is no longer asking for delivery signatures. They are scanning IDs. We have complained to FedEx, but they remain resolute. Scanned identification is safer, but if you have a problem with this decision, please make your feelings known to FedEx. Unfortunately, the present delivery time for the USPS alternative is 2-3 weeks.
Should you decide to use our Delayed Delivery Program please talk with your service rep and understand how this program works. It is handy if you want to lock in the price “now” and insist on a new product – but is not for everyone. Just like us – you must pay upfront to “lock in” prices and you can’t “change” your mind. So, unless God has blessed you with patience, please ask your rep for other options and thank you for understanding.
On Monday the bulls are breathing a sigh of relief as gold moved to session highs of $2890.20 finished the day up a strong $53.40. This potential change in sentiment reflected fresh data from several sources, including The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) which pointed to a surprising rise in inflation. At the same time the dollar weakened as the Dollar Index moved from 107.5 to 106.5, which restokes safe haven demand driven by tariff fears. I think these factors developed a basically unstable market in gold created again by the Trump factor.
As you review this bullish gift it should be clear that volatility rules. Driven by uncertainty. The physical bullion market should, however, consider an alternative view. Perhaps last Friday’s close of $2836.80, which created liquidation in a wave of profit taking was the first sign of an oversold market. A market which, as confusing as it appears to be, is seen by some insiders as generally moving higher in 2025. A market looking again at the magic $3000.00 number.
Reuters (Anmol Choubey) – Gold prices rebound on weaker US dollar and tariff concerns – “Gold prices rose on Monday after a slump to a three-week low in the previous session, driven by a weaker dollar and safe-haven buying in response to concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff policies. Spot gold gained 0.5% to $2,873.11 an ounce as of 09:29 a.m. ET (1429 GMT). U.S. gold futures rose 1.3% to $2,884.50. “I think ultimately we are in a very bullish market and gold can get much higher than $3,000… with tariffs and possible retaliation I still think you’re seeing central banks come in and buy,” said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. The dollar index dropped by 0.8%, moving away from a more than two-week high hit in the previous session, reflecting weakness that makes dollar-priced gold less expensive for buyers holding other currencies. Trump is expected to decide on Monday what level of tariffs he will impose effective from early Tuesday on imports from Canada and Mexico. He had vowed to impose 25% tariffs on the two countries’ imports, but this was paused for a month which expires on Tuesday. Last week, Trump threatened China with an extra 10% duty, also set to take effect on Tuesday, resulting in a cumulative 20% tariff. Investors’ focus is also shifting to the ADP employment report due on Wednesday and the U.S. non-farm payrolls report due on Friday for more clues on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Expectations around the Fed, which has held interest rates steady since December, are uncertain now ahead of the data.
Despite being widely viewed as a hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainty, non-yielding gold becomes less attractive to investors when interest rates rise. Spot silver was up 1.7% at $31.68 an ounce, platinum gained 1.3% to $959.90, and palladium added 2.1% to $938.96. “We see room for larger gains in silver as the gold rally consolidates and global industrial production signals a modest recovery,” UBS analysts said in a note.”
On the day gold closed up $53.40 at $2890.20, and silver closed up $0.81 at $32.03.
On Tuesday the price of gold moved higher again today, driven by the momentum trade from yesterday and further safe haven demand relating to Trump tariff policy. Gold reached an early high at $2925.00 before settling and managed to finish the day nicely in the green. The bulls continue to chip away at tough overhead resistance on both sides of $2900.00. Whether $3000.00 gold is in the making in the short term remains to be seen but it’s certainly within reach this year.
Reuters (Anmol Choubey) – Gold rises on weaker dollar, trade war fears after Trump tariffs – “Gold prices rose on Tuesday, driven by a weaker dollar and heightened safe-haven demand amid escalating trade conflicts following U.S. President Donald Trump’s imposition of new tariffs. Spot gold was up 0.9% at $2,918.90 an ounce as of 09:12 a.m. ET (1154 GMT). Bullion has gained more than 11% so far this year and hit a record high of $2,956.15 on February 24. U.S. gold futures were up 1% at $2,929.20. “The implementation of tariffs brings a high level of uncertainty to the markets, and safe-haven products like gold and silver continue to do well,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. “The dollar has been under pressure against some of the other major currencies, so that has been supportive as well,” he added. Trump’s new 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada took effect at 0501 GMT. He also doubled duties on Chinese goods to 20%. China hit back immediately with additional 10%-15% tariffs on certain U.S. imports from March 10 and a series of new export restrictions for designated U.S. entities. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.6%, hitting its lowest level since December and making dollar-priced gold less expensive for buyers holding other currencies. Investors’ focus turns to the ADP employment report on Wednesday and the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report on Friday for clues on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate trajectory. Considering potential economic instability and a weakening job market, there may be a possibility of an earlier-than-expected rate cut by the Fed. Following three rate cuts last year, the Fed has kept rates steady. Market expectations point towards a resumption of cuts in June, with a potential further reduction in short-term borrowing costs in September. JPMorgan said it expects gold to be close to $3,000 an ounce by the fourth quarter of 2025. Spot silver added 0.7% to $31.89 an ounce, platinum firmed 0.9% to $961.45 and palladium gained 0.3% to $940.92.”
On the day gold closed up $19.40 at $2909.60, and silver closed up $0.08 at $32.11.
On Wednesday paper traders tested gold support at $2900.00 but bargain hunters quickly bought the dip and prices moved higher helped by a weaker dollar. Gold finished only mildly in the green for the day, but bullish sentiment is still in place for another attempt at $3000.00. The bulls will also like the latest from the World Gold Council – Gold remains well supported as central banks continue to buy in 2025. I’m not as optimistic as some who believe that $4000.00 gold is in the making. Let’s see if physical investors can first break through that $3000.00 overhead resistance with some conviction. It might be time to evaluate your bullion holdings. A few investors are taking profits at these higher levels as the fear of recession is growing according to Reuters. Still gold seems to be climbing this “wall of worry” – another plus for bullish sentiment.
Reuters (Rahul Paswan) – Gold falls slightly amid tariffs uncertainty, focus on upcoming US data – “Gold prices declined slightly on Wednesday amid uncertainty over the tariffs announced by U.S. President Donald Trump this week, and as focus shifts to Friday’s payrolls data for a steer on the Federal Reserve’s next monetary policy move. Spot gold was down 0.15% at $2,913.15 per ounce by 1325 GMT. Prices hit a record high of $2,956.15 on February 24 and have gained 11% so far this year. U.S. gold futures rose 0.1% to $2,924.30 per ounce. “Uncertainty is food and water for gold and hence the bias on prices is to the upside,” Ross Norman, an independent analyst, said. “Gold looks content to consolidate after recent gains, but with one eye firmly on the $3,000 level.” In an address to Congress, Trump said further tariffs would follow on April 2, including “reciprocal tariffs” and non-tariff actions aimed at balancing out years of trade imbalances. This follows new 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, along with a doubling of duties on Chinese goods to 20%. Meanwhile, top bullion consumer China unlocked more fiscal stimulus, promising greater efforts to support consumption and cushion the impact of an escalating trade war with the U.S. Markets now await U.S. nonfarm payrolls on Friday for cues on the U.S. interest rate trajectory. “Geopolitical events and tariffs are currently overshadowing economic data… Significant deviations from market expectations would be needed to create meaningful movement, and any reaction to this week’s ADP (employment report) and payrolls data is likely to be short-lived,” said Zain Vawda, market analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA. Elsewhere, the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) raised its 2025 platinum market deficit forecast by 57%, and its 2024 deficit estimate by 46%. Platinum gained 0.7% to reach $966.90 per ounce. Spot silver advanced nearly 1% to $32.293 per ounce, and palladium rose 0.1% to $943.00 per ounce.”
On the day gold closed up $5.70 at $2915.30, and silver closed up $0.75 at $32.86.
On Thursday the price of gold dipped on the open to $2890.00 likely on a round of profit taking. Gold did recover but seemed lethargic, finishing almost unchanged on the day. It is surprising that gold now seems to be struggling considering that the ECB has cut interest rates by a quarter point. Which makes the case for lower US interest rates sooner and therefore higher gold prices. Our trading desk is more interesting…virtually no sellers and now several large buyers.
FXEmpire (Chirstopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to See Noisy Volatility – “The gold market has seen a bit of noisy trading in the early hours of Thursday, but at this point in time, the trend is still very bullish overall, as we are trying to form a bullish flag. Technical Analysis – Gold markets have pulled back just a bit during the early hours on Thursday, but it does look like the $2,900 level is going to at least attempt to offer a bit of support. Ultimately, I do think this is a market that given enough time will have to determine whether or not it wants to break out of this bullish flag, but it’s probably worth noting that the US dollar is a little oversold right here and therefore I think gold giving back some of those gains based on the US dollar probably makes a bit of sense. After all, sooner or later, gravity has to come back into play. That being said, if we can break above the top of the bullish flag that we currently see on the chart, I think it’s difficult to underestimate just how powerful of a signal that might be. Breaking above the top of that flag could kick off a move all the way to the $3,300 level, although I don’t necessarily think that would be an easy move to make, but it certainly looks like it would be a move that could very well happen over time. Short-term pullbacks should continue to see plenty of support, especially near the 50-day EMA, which is consequently at the bottom of the flag as well. So, with all of that being said, I think you have a buy-in on the dip market, and if we do get a pullback, I think you have to look at this as an opportunity to take advantage of, not necessarily, something to be overly concerned about. Silver Continues to Look for Buyers on Each Dip – The silver market has pulled back just a touch in the early hours of Thursday, as the markets continue to favor silver in the short term. That being said, there are a few levels that we will have to look closely at for selling pressures. Technical Analysis – The silver market has shown itself to be a little bit negative in the early hours on Thursday, but it does seem to be trying to hang on to the $32.35 level, an area that has been important for some time. With this, I think Silver continues to see a lot of questions asked about whether or not it can continue to rally from here. And I think you need to pay close attention to the $33.33 level to give you a bit of a heads up as to whether or not that actually could be the case. After all, the market has been rather noisy and choppy, but I also recognize that this is a market that has a lot of cross currents right now. And what I mean by this is that silver is a precious metal and it will react accordingly, especially with the US dollar falling the way it has as of late, but that’s been overdone. So that might get taken away from the bull case, at least for the short term. We also worry about industrial demand and that is a different animal altogether. With that being the case, you need to be very cautious because industrial demand could be shrinking due to the global economy slowing down. Nonetheless, we are in a general uptrend and that’s the most important thing that I pay attention to. I don’t really try to argue with the market, I just follow along. So, these short-term pullbacks could very well end up being buying opportunities to buy on the dip as we go higher over the longer term.”
On the day gold closed up $1.30 at $2916.60, and silver closed up $0.20 at $33.06.
On Friday the price of gold was choppy but moved from highs of $2930.00 to lows on the day of $2905.00. So, the bulls will settle for a calm close into the weekend as prices drifted mildly into the red. Not a big deal but considering Monday’s big open to the upside the rest of the week was disappointing. The general outlook is for higher prices, perhaps even record highs in 2025.00. I still believe caution is warranted so expect a bumpy ride and keep your seatbelts fastened. An important note from Jerome Powell (Reuters) – “The U.S. central bank will be in no rush to cut interest rates while it waits for more clarity on how the policies of the new Trump administration affect the economy, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Friday.” If interest rates remain at current levels higher gold prices will be hindered in my opinion.
FXEmpire (James Hyerczyk) – Gold Market Outlook: U.S. Jobs Data & Powell’s Speech Set to Drive Next Move – Gold Prices Rise, Nearing Record High as Traders Eye US Jobs Data and Tariff Developments – Gold prices are trading higher on Friday, on track for their best week in six, as traders assess key support levels while awaiting the U.S. non-farm payrolls report and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech. The metal has been consolidating within a critical pivot range of $2,895.29 to $2,910.32, holding above this zone to remain within reach of its all-time high at $2,956.31. Gold Holds Above Key Support as Treasury Yields Decline – A sustained move above $2,895.29 would keep bullish momentum intact, potentially setting up a test of record highs. However, failure to hold this level could trigger a near-term correction, with initial support at $2,864.26 to $2,843.43. The last significant support before deeper losses stands at $2,832.72. Further downside could see gold testing its 50-day moving average at $2,799.72, with additional support at $2,770.11 to $2,726.17. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields are ticking lower as investors reduce risk exposure ahead of the jobs data release. Lower yields generally enhance gold’s appeal, as they reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Weaker Dollar, Trade Policy Uncertainty Support Gold – Gold’s gains this week have been underpinned by a weakening U.S. dollar, which is on track for its worst weekly performance since early November. Trade concerns have also fueled demand for safe-haven assets, with the U.S. announcing a temporary tariff reprieve on Canadian and Mexican imports that meet USMCA requirements. This exemption, lasting until April 2, introduces further uncertainty in tariff policy, making it difficult for markets to fully price in trade-related risks. “Markets are all over the place trying to price tariff impacts, which is really hard to do when the goal post moves, disappears, and morphs by the second,” said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group. Traders Await Non-Farm Payrolls and Powell’s Speech – The U.S. non-farm payrolls report, due at 13:30 GMT, is expected to show 170,000 jobs added in February, up from 143,000 the previous month, with the unemployment rate holding at 4%, according to a Dow Jones poll. This data will provide fresh insight into the labor market’s strength and could influence expectations for Fed policy. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech later in the day will also be closely monitored. While markets are pricing in a rate cut by June, Fed Governor Christopher Waller has pushed back against near-term easing. Higher interest rates typically weigh on gold’s appeal, making Powell’s remarks a potential catalyst for market direction. Market Forecast: Cautiously Bullish – Gold’s ability to hold above $2,895.29 keeps its upside potential intact. A breakout above $2,956.31 could open the door to further gains, while a break below $2,895.29 may lead to a correction toward $2,864.26. Non-farm payrolls data and Powell’s speech will be key drivers for short-term price action. Lower Treasury yields and trade uncertainty provide support, but stronger-than-expected jobs data could cap gains by reinforcing the Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts.”
On the day gold closed down $11.90 at $2904.70, and silver closed down $0.51 at $32.55.
Platinum closed down $13.20 at $961.60, and palladium closed up $3.80 at $945.80.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, April gold futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the contract high of $2,974.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $2,844.10. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $2,941.30 and then at $2,950.00. First support is seen at $2,900.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of $2,892.50. May silver futures bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of $34.56. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $31.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $33.38 and then at $34.00. Next support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $32.395 and then at $32.00.”
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