Commentary for Friday, Nov 22, 2024 (www.golddealer.com) – Today gold closed up $37.80 at $2709.90, and silver closed up $0.40 at $31.31. Today’s finish for gold and silver will help further excite its trading base as insiders expect even higher prices as the historic year of 2024 comes to an end. Safe haven demand created this latest reversal, make no mistake about that, as gold bounced off the $2560.00 support and moved back above $2700.00 in an amazing reversal which took only three trading days. Whether this leap to higher ground will continue depends on what happens with Chief Powell and his view of the latest interest rate model. It also depends on what might be in the making as Trump organizes his world view. In the meantime, keep your seatbelt fastened and expect volatility. Across our trading desk the public is not selling much, and at the same time they are not buying much either. The average person seems willing to exercise patience in this transition period as prices rise. Last Friday gold closed at $2565.70 / silver at $30.37. On the week gold was higher by $144.20, and silver was higher by $0.94.
Please note that FedEx is no longer asking for delivery signatures. They are scanning IDs. We have complained to FedEx, but they remain resolute. Scanned identification is safer, but if you have a problem with this decision, please make your feelings known to FedEx. Unfortunately, the present delivery time for the USPS alternative is 2-3 weeks.
Should you decide to use our Delayed Delivery Program please talk with your service rep and understand how this program works. It is handy if you want to lock in the price “now” and insist on a new product – but is not for everyone. Just like us – you must pay upfront to “lock in” prices and you can’t “change” your mind. So, unless God has blessed you with patience, please ask your rep for other options and thank you for understanding.
On Monday you should give bullish sentiment a pat on the back, as traders struggle to stabilize this market after recent large losses. In this early morning session, gold has popped nicely above $2600.00 suggesting that it did indeed pivot last Friday. If support holds at $2600.00, it would be a plus for lagging bullish sentiment and suggest fresh safe haven buying and bargain hunting.
If it does not hold the technical guys will be looking for lower prices ($2500.00) as bearish sentiment gains momentum. From a practical standpoint $2500.00 gold represents a $300.00 loss to investors who bought gold at its most recent peak of $2800.00 this year.
The initial tension of “who will be elected” is being replaced with a larger geopolitical view which mandates physical possession of bullion as world powers, central banks and investors wait for the expected political and secular changes expected with the Trump presidency. You may see short-term volatility but in the longer view higher prices for both gold and silver bullion. The reasoning here being that inflation always reinvents itself and interest rates will eventually drift lower as the Federal Reserve continues in its efforts to avoid recession.
Reuters (Rahul Paswan) – Gold rebounds after six-session losing streak as dollar rally pauses – “Gold prices rebounded on Monday, having posted losses in the previous six sessions, with gains driven by a pause in the U.S. dollar’s rally, while investors await comments from the Federal Reserve officials for clarity on the interest rate trajectory. Spot gold rose 1.3% to $2,593.32 per ounce by 1206 GMT, moving away from a two-month low hit on Thursday. U.S. gold futures were up 1.1% at $2,597.80. Last week, gold prices saw their biggest weekly decline in over three years as expectations of less aggressive interest rate cuts by the Fed boosted the dollar. However, the dollar was holding flat below Thursday’s one-year high after rising 1.6% last week. A softer dollar makes bullion less expensive for buyers holding other currencies. “We can look to the dollar for a significant part of the current gold price corrections … I’m not saying you’ve found a solid physical floor yet, but clearly, some opportunistic buying is coming in to support the market as well,” independent analyst Ross Norman said. “As the year ends, we will see volatility in gold prices and there’ll be some books clearing and profit-taking, regardless of what the Fed does in December.” Recent U.S. economic data has reduced expectations for a December rate cut by the Fed. At least seven U.S. central bank officials are due to speak this week. Higher interest rates make holding gold, which doesn’t pay any interest, less attractive. “President Trump’s inauguration is likely to see an ongoing strengthening of the USD (U.S. dollar), which is negative for gold in the short to medium term. However, as his stated policies are likely to be significantly inflationary in the long term, this will benefit gold,” said Michael Langford, chief investment officer at Scorpion Minerals.Spot silver rose 1.8% to $30.74 per ounce, platinum added 1.6% at $953.34 and palladium climbed 2.1% to $970.48.”
On the day gold closed up $44.90 at $2610.60, and silver closed up $0.79 at $31.16.
On Tuesday gold moved toward $2640.00 early in the morning before traders sold this rally. And while prices turned choppy it finished mildly in the green, consolidating around $2630.00. Silver looks like it is consolidating around $31.25 in the short term. Both gold and silver did not make fresh new highs even as the dollar weakened. This outcome is most likely because investors are waiting for Chief Powell’s most recent assessment of the Fed’s interest rate policy.
I believe the current pricing range for both gold and silver will be underpinned by the still escalating war in the Ukraine, adding some stability to this existing trading range.
Reuters (Rahul Paswan) – Gold hits one-week peak as US dollar backs off recent highs – “Gold prices climbed for a second straight session to hit a one-week peak on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar pulled back from recent highs, while investors awaited comments from Federal Reserve officials for clarity on its interest rate cut policy. Spot gold rose 1% to $2,637.10 per ounce by 1308 GMT, the highest since Nov. 11. Prices gained 2% on Monday, recovering from a two-month low hit on Thursday. U.S. gold futures added 1% to $2,641.10. “The selling has run out of steam and that’s attracting those potential buyers sitting on the fence waiting for the market to stabilize to get back in,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. “The dollar has stopped rising and that probably was the necessary trigger.” The U.S. dollar experienced a pullback as investors engaged in profit-taking following last week’s stellar rally that saw it scale a one-year high. The decline in the dollar’s value makes gold less expensive for buyers holding other currencies. Multiple Fed officials are scheduled to speak this week, which could offer further insights into the rate cut paths. Traders currently see a 58% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in December. Also boosting gold was an escalation of attacks in the Russia-Ukraine war. Russia launched its largest air strike on Ukraine in nearly three months on Sunday. Gold, which doesn’t pay any interest, performs well in times of geopolitical uncertainty and low-interest rate environments. Among other metals, spot silver added 0.7% to $31.38, hitting a one-week high earlier in the session. Platinum ticked 0.2% lower to $965.52.”
On the day gold closed up $16.50 at $2627.10, and silver closed up $0.05 at $31.21.
On Wednesday gold initially dipped in early trade, bouncing off support at $2620.00 and moving to daily highs at $2645.00, likely reflecting increased safe haven demand and bargain hunting. Gold’s ability to recover from daily lows and move to daily highs will encourage bullish sentiment even as experts give gold and silver a slightly bearish edge from a technical standpoint. Patience is always needed in these “back and forth” markets but if investors follow hedge funds and central banks higher prices are the likely prize in 2025.
Reuters (Rahul Paswan) – Gold prices ease from one-week high as US dollar strengthens – “Gold prices eased from a one-week high on Wednesday as the dollar strengthened, though safe-haven demand linked to Russia-Ukraine tensions helped cap further losses. Spot gold was down 0.2% at $2,627.60 per ounce as of 1238 GMT, after hitting its highest level since Nov. 11 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures were steady at $2,631.30. The U.S. dollar rebounded after hitting a one-week low. A stronger U.S. currency makes bullion more expensive for overseas buyers. The current decline in gold can be attributed to profit-taking and a stronger dollar, but developments in the Russia-Ukraine situation are crucial and should be closely observed, said Zain Vawda, market analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA. Russian President Vladimir Putin lowered the threshold for a nuclear strike in response to a broader range of conventional attacks, days after reports said Washington had allowed Ukraine to use U.S.-made weapons to strike deep into Russia. Meanwhile, several Federal Reserve officials are expected to speak this week, which could provide insights into the future path of interest rates. Traders see a 59.1% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in December and a 40.9% chance of rates being held steady. “A December pause in Fed rate cuts could subdue the gold price, in the short term, but the easing monetary cycle, macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, and healthy physical demand will maintain positive gold market sentiment,” ANZ said in a note. Recent U.S. economic data and expectations that Republicans will enact more inflationary policies have raised prospects that interest rates will remain higher for longer. Bullion is considered a hedge against inflation, but higher rates reduce the appeal of holding the non-yielding asset. Among other metals, spot silver fell 1% to $30.89, platinum shed 0.7% to $967.65 and palladium edged about 0.5% lower to $1,030.31.”
On the day gold closed up $21.10 at $2648.20, and silver closed down $0.25 at $30.96.
On Thursday gold moved higher on the open ($2672.00) and quickly settled at the higher end of today’s trading range. This aggressive pricing pattern will enforce the current bullish thinking, and investors will likely be looking for continued firm prices as Putin talks about World War 3 and his nuclear option. So, there is an awful lot of drama contributing to this “frothy” and “back and forth” pricing model. But gold remains strong and could see a test of all-time highs before Christmas. What kind of “trigger” this might become remains to be seen.
In the short term we may see increased buying or selling depending on how the world interprets Trump’s geopolitical master plan. Keep your sense of humor and remember the Shakespeare (Tempest) quote – “Misery acquaints a man with strange bedfellows.” As the holidays approach and investors turn their attention to family and friends this trade should settle somewhat.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to Look Strong on Thursday – “The gold market continues to see a lot of strength in the early hours of Thursday, as the geopolitical issues only get worse in Ukraine, as well as many other places in the world. Furthermore, there are a lot of central banks around the world that continue to collect gold. Technical Analysis – The gold market rallied a bit during the early hours on Thursday, as it looks like we have a scenario where breaking above the 50 day EMA has perhaps brought in more buyers. The market is more likely than not to continue to favor upward movement towards the $2,800 level. The $2,800 level of course is an area where we had pulled back from previously, so I think that has a lot to do with perhaps topping out the market. If we can get above there, then that opens up the $3,000 level. Short-term pullbacks, I think, continue to see plenty of support near the $2,600 level. And at this point in time, I think there are plenty of reasons for gold to go higher, even beyond the chart. While the chart does show a lot of momentum, the reality is that the geopolitics are getting worse in Ukraine, not better. Because of this, some asset managers will put a little bit more money into the gold market in order to protect wealth. Furthermore, we also have central banks around the world doing everything they can to accumulate gold, mainly China, Russia, Indonesia, India, and several other big ones, especially in that part of the world. So, I think gold has quite a bit of momentum and it is a buy on the dip market. I just don’t have any interest whatsoever in trying to get short of this market anytime soon, as it is so strong. Silver Continues to See Noisy Consolidation – The silver market continues to see a lot of noisy trading, as we are looking to the $30 level as a support level, as well as the 50 Day EMA above offering resistance. The silver market continues to see a lot of questions asked of it. Technical Analysis – The silver market rallied just a bit during the early hours on Thursday, reaching the 50 day EMA, but pulling back just a bit. Keep in mind that although there are a lot of geopolitical risks out there, traders tend to block gold, not silver in that environment. And therefore, uh, the fact that we couldn’t hang on to the gains early in the session is probably not a major shock. That being said, if we can break above the 50 day EMA, especially on a daily close, then I think silver continues to go much higher, perhaps back towards the $35 level, which was the recent swing high in general. This is a market that even if we do break down from here, I do believe that the $30 level will continue to be crucial as far as support is concerned and if we break down below there, then you have the 200 day EMA coming next. But really at this point, I think you have to look at this through the prism of, are you finding value? You don’t want to chase silver, but on the other hand, if we do get some momentum to the upside, that gives you a little bit of confidence in a resumption of what has been a longer term and strong trend. I have no interest whatsoever in trying to short the market, I believe that silver will continue to rally right along with gold, although possibly at a different pace.”
On the day gold closed up $23.90 at $2672.10, and silver closed down $0.05 at $30.31.
On Friday the price of gold moved above $2700.00 in a week of bullish news and an improved technical picture. And yet, at the same time the Dollar Index moved to 108.00, which is stronger than lye soap. So as these crosscurrents intensify, what might be happening to the traditional relationship between the dollar and interest rates? Normally they move opposite one another but today they are moving in the same direction. Could it be that they have decided to part company? If so, you could be right in the middle of a truly historic monetary change as the world grapples with how to define true value in a rapidly changing fiat paper world.
Reuters (Sherin Elizabeth Varghese) – Gold rallies on safe-haven demand, set for best week in over a year – “Gold prices breached the $2,700 threshold for the first time in two weeks on Friday, on track for their biggest weekly gain in over a year, as safe-haven demand outweighed dollar strength and lower expectations of a U.S. rate cut next month. Spot gold was up 1% at $2,696.77 per ounce by 10:14 a.m. ET (1514 GMT), having earlier hit its highest since Nov. 8 at $2709.99. U.S. gold futures rose 0.9% to $2,698.90. “The escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict seems like it’s expanding to a Russia-U.S. war, and that’s definitely boosting short-term safe haven appeal,” said Alex Ebkarian. Bullion has gained over 5% this week, poised for its best weekly performance since last October, when the Middle East conflict first ignited, sparking a rally that pushed gold to multiple record highs. Gold’s surge this week has been propelled by the intensifying Russia-Ukraine crisis, lifting prices more than $173 from last Thursday’s two-month low of $2536.71. Bullion tends to shine during periods of geopolitical tension, economic risks, and in a low interest rate environment. Gold’s rise continued on Friday even as the U.S. dollar (.DXY), opens new tab hit a over 13-month high and bitcoin reached an all-time peak. Expectations for a December rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve have diminished, with the likelihood now at 56%, a sharp drop from 82.5% just a week earlier. Some Fed policymakers this week expressed concern that inflation progress may have stalled, advocating for caution, while others emphasized the need for continued rate cuts. With ongoing policy shifts, and inflation risks from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed trade tariffs, gold’s outlook stays strong, with a test of $2,750 expected by mid-December, Ebkarian said. Spot silver rose 1.4% to $31.22 per ounce, palladium fell 1.5% to $1,014.25, while platinum gained 0.9% to $969.25. All three metals were on track for a weekly rise. “In our view, the price of platinum in particular should rise significantly, as the market is likely to be in deficit for the third year in a row in 2025,” Commerzbank analysts noted.”
On the day gold closed up $37.80 at $2709.90, and silver closed up $0.40 at $31.31.
Platinum closed up $4.50 at $969.70, and palladium closed down $25.60 at $1017.00.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, December gold bulls have gained the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are starting to trend up again. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,750.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,618.80. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $2,712.40 and then at $2,725.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $2,670.10 and then at Thursday’s low of $2,651.60. December silver futures bulls and bears are back on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $33.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the November low of $29.75. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $31.615 and then at $32.00. Next support is seen at $31.00 and then at Thursday’s low of $30.71”.
Brothers and Sisters, thank you for your friendship. If you have unusual circumstances, need cash or a special favor – talk to Harry or Eric or Ken Slater. We are now back to our traditional business model. Thank you for your patience. Blessings. Richard Schwary
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