Commentary for Friday, Jan 31, 2025 – Today gold closed down $10.50 at $2812.50, and silver closed down $0.23 at $32.13. Gold pushed as high as $2820.00 today as inflation remains stubborn and unpredictable. Gold prices in the longer term are also helped by the announcement that President Trump will impose a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico tomorrow (Saturday). The price of gold traded between $2300.00 and $2400.00 during the pre-summer months of 2024. It made all-time highs of $2800.00 in October, then moved lower, finding support at $2600.00. In January of 2025 it made fresh new highs above $2800.00. So where to go from here? In the long term insiders see even higher prices this year given that interest rates continue to trend lower. But the introduction of tariffs by the President has created an international confusion because what is good for the goose is good for the gander. Tariffs work both ways and are unpredictable. It looks like Canada will retaliate and Mexico will negotiate. I don’t see prices heading appreciably lower, but you never know so keep your seat belts fastened. This trade could get bumpy. Last Friday gold closed at $2777.30 / silver at $31.02. On the week gold closed up $35.20, and silver closed up $1.11.
Please note that FedEx is no longer asking for delivery signatures. They are scanning IDs. We have complained to FedEx, but they remain resolute. Scanned identification is safer, but if you have a problem with this decision, please make your feelings known to FedEx. Unfortunately, the present delivery time for the USPS alternative is 2-3 weeks.
Should you decide to use our Delayed Delivery Program please talk with your service rep and understand how this program works. It is handy if you want to lock in the price “now” and insist on a new product – but is not for everyone. Just like us – you must pay upfront to “lock in” prices and you can’t “change” your mind. So, unless God has blessed you with patience, please ask your rep for other options and thank you for understanding.
On Monday the price of gold was a disappointment to the bulls considering that last Friday they were looking for confirmation of much higher prices, especially with an uncertain geopolitical situation and perhaps the increasing safe haven demand created by our new president. This morning, gold jumped to $2770.00 highs and quickly reversed direction, testing lows at $2730.00, finally finishing the day solidly in the red. The drop was large enough to get attention and this ruckus was likely the result of rising tension in stocks this morning.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) “Gold and silver prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading Monday, amid a major U.S. stock market sell off that has traders and investors spooked. Many traders in the general marketplace are exhibiting a mentality of, “if you can’t sell what you want, you sell what you can.” This keener uncertainty in the marketplace to start the trading week is not finding safe-haven demand for gold and silver – yet. However, don’t be surprised to see some safe-haven buying surface in the two precious metals if the stock market sell off worsens. The U.S. Treasury market is already seeing some safe-haven demand today.”
In my opinion today’s pricing is the result of the typical “back and forth” dynamic we have become used to these past few months. It is not a big deal and will continue until the interest rate picture resolves itself. In the meantime, buckle up. There are enough outside factors to turn this into a bumpy ride. But it could just as easily turn boring as investors wait for fresh data.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to Respect The Resistance – “The gold market pulled back a bit in the early hours of Monday, as the markets continued to pay close attention to the $2800 level. This is a market that will continue to see questions asked about it, as the market has been paying attention to various factors. This is a market that will continue to be noisy. Technical Analysis – The gold market has pulled back a bit to show signs of hesitation as the 2800 level continues to be a bit of a ceiling. A pullback to the $2,700 level is very possible, but it doesn’t look as likely just due to the fact that we’ve seen quite a bit of noise near the $2,750 level. Gold, of course, is continuing to see a lot of interest in the market due to geopolitical concerns and, of course, interest rate situational awareness. We have the Federal Reserve, the ECB, and the Bank of Canada all with interest rate decisions this week. So that obviously has a major influence on gold and multiple currencies. When you look at the positioning of the market right now, it does form a little bit of a W pattern and that W pattern is likely to indicate that perhaps if we can break above the $2,800 level, we can go much higher. In fact, the measured move is to the 3,000 level, which I think is your target eventually. Short-term pullbacks at this point in time continue to be buying opportunities but do so in smaller increments as the volatility is probably going to get worse, not better. When I say that, I don’t mean that with just the gold market, I think the markets in general are going to continue to be very noisy. Silver Continues to See Choppy Trading – The silver market looks choppy overall, as we are looking at a major resistance barrier just above. The market will continue to be noisy, but I think there are a lot of questions out there. Silver will continue to be a dangerous place to be involved in at the moment. Technical Analysis – Silver has gone back and forth during the course of the trading session on Monday, as we head towards the New York timeframe. The 50 day EMA seems to be offering a bit of resistance and of course, we also have the $31.00 level offering resistance, which of course is an area that has been important multiple times. If we could break above the $31.00 level, then I think we have a shot at finally taking off towards $32.35 level. With that being said, I do think that the market also has quite a bit of support right around $29.00. So, it’s not until we break down below $28.75 that I think the market truly falls apart. I think we’re going sideways for a while and that does make a certain amount of sense considering there’s so much chaos in the world right now and silver is naturally volatile. With all of that being said, I think you’ve got a situation where you have to look at this as a sideways going nowhere market for the time being, but you could perhaps pay attention to the $28.75 level for a sign that we’re going much lower, and then perhaps pay attention to the $31.00 level as a sign that we could possibly go higher. Anything between those two levels probably remains noise, but short-term range bound traders might find this interesting.”
On the day gold closed down $39.80 at $2737.50, and silver closed down $0.77 at $30.25.
On Tuesday the price of gold dipped initially and then moved to session highs of $2763.00, a welcomed rebound from yesterday’s rather large drop in prices. Do not read too much into this bounce to higher ground, other than it reinforces, in my mind the notion that traders remain somewhat optimistic which supports current prices levels. But not so optimistic they are ready to wager the farm because they expect higher gold or silver prices in the short term.
Paper traders are given the opportunity to consider a powerful mix of cross wind components, which may or may not turn volatile. They include Trumpism, tariffs, Federal resolve over interest rates, and increasing geopolitical tension. Today’s bit of bullish happiness might also refresh the speculation of $3000.00 gold this year. But I think that might be a stretch.
The problem everyone has at this point is trying to figure out how much Trump can exercise his vision, cajole friends, and threaten his enemies without incurring a string of lawsuits which will bog down progress in reducing spending and making the government more efficient. Not an easy job for anyone as the US debt load quickly increases. It is not as through Trump needs to pull a rabbit out of his hat, but he might have to break some eggs to make this omelet.
Reuters (Anmol Choubey) – Gold rebounds from tech-led selloff on tariff uncertainties – “Gold prices rebounded on Tuesday from a dip in the previous session triggered by tech-led wider market sell-off, as increasing uncertainties over U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs kept investor interest in the safe-haven asset. Spot gold rose 0.4% to $2,751.66 per ounce by 10:07 a.m. ET (1507 GMT). Gold dropped over 1% to mark its steepest drop since Dec. 18 in the previous session spurred by DeepSeek’s low-cost, low-power AI model. U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $2,746.70. “I think some of the biggest factors are Trump’s comments yesterday in regard to tariffs… and right now, the correlation with gold is, a basket of geopolitics, inflation expectations,” said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. Trump said on Monday he plans to impose tariffs on imported computer chips, pharmaceuticals and steel in an effort to get the producers to make them in the United States. Trump’s policies, in addition to being perceived as inflationary, could potentially trigger trade wars, increasing safe-haven demand for bullion. Investors’ focus is now set upon the Federal Reserve’s first policy meeting this year, scheduled to start later in the day. Policymakers are expected to leave interest rates unchanged at the end of the two-day meeting. However, Trump saying he wants borrowing costs to be lowered cast some doubt over the independence of the Fed’s decision. “We’re not that far away from all-time highs, so the upward momentum is there we just need some kind of trigger to get it going,” said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures. Gold prices look set for a record-breaking year due to heightened economic uncertainty and inflation concerns, a Reuters poll showed. However, analysts downgraded their 2025 price forecasts for platinum and palladium as demand struggles to improve significantly. Spot silver fell 0.4% to $30.08 per ounce, palladium was down by 0.9% to $951.94, and platinum also shed 1% to $937.84.”
On the day gold closed up $29.30 at $2766.80, and silver closed up $0.48 at $30.73.
On Wednesday the price of gold in early trading moved between $2765.00 and $2769.00 finishing the day up $2.30. The bullish sentiment is hopeful that $2700.00 will turn out to be the short term floor. CBS News – “Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady as inflation remains above 2%”. Insiders believe this call will support bullish sentiment, but it seems to be at odds with Trump’s demand for lower interest rates. Traders did pay much attention to either the bullish or bearish want list, gold yawned and drifted lower ($2746.00) in the aftermarket.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to Face Ceiling – “The gold market continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, as we wait for the Federal Reserve decision later in the day. Technical Analysis – The gold market was down just a touch during the early hours on Wednesday as we are waiting for the Federal Reserve and I think that’s probably going to be the big story for the day, we’re just hanging around trying to sort out what we’re actually going to do. With that being the case, I assume that the trend continues. I mean, it is there for a reason after all and therefore, I look at pullbacks as potential buying opportunities. The $2,700 level underneath could very well end up being a short-term floor with the 50-day EMA racing toward it. If we do turn around and break higher, a clearance of the $2,800 level would be extraordinarily strong for gold and send it much higher as well. And in fact, the measured move at that point for me is $3,000, which is my longer-term target anyway, so it all ties together quite nicely. Gold, of course, has a lot working for it on the sidelines, such as geopolitical tensions and fears of tariffs. That has some people looking to protect their wealth, although full disclosure, you get more bang out of your buck as it were, owning gold in other denominations, not the US dollar. For example, take a look at gold against the Australian dollar. Either way, it will move in the same direction, and I am bullish of gold, regardless of the denomination. Silver Continues to See Sideways Action – The silver market rallied a bit in the early hours of Wednesday, as the market continues to see a lot of questions asked about it. Technical Analysis – The silver market has been somewhat bullish during the trading session on Wednesday, but Wednesday is going to be a unique session in the sense that we do have the Federal Reserve late in the day and that of course has a major influence on what happens next. If we can break above the $31 level on a daily close, then I believe that opens up the opportunity for the market to go looking at the $32.50 level. If we break down from here, the 200 day EMA comes into the picture, and I think that ends up being support right along with the $28.75 level. All things being equal, this is a market that is range bound, but I’m watching this $31 level on a daily close above, mainly due to the fact that it would be such an obvious breach of resistance that I think a lot of people would jump in. Keep in mind that silver has a lot to think about. We have interest rates, which obviously will be addressed by the Federal Reserve, but we also have industrial usage. There are a lot of questions about tariffs and economic growth or lack of, and I think that’s part of what we’ve seen work against silver overall. So, with that being said, I anticipate that we will stay in this range, but I’m waiting to see how we close at the end of the session.”
On the day gold closed up $2.30 at $2769.10, and silver closed up $0.51 at $31.24.
On Thursday the price of gold moved aggressively higher, challenging $2850.00 likely on a combination of technical buying and worldwide uncertainty which is driving safe haven demand. For gold the $2800.00 level appears to be a major barrier so some correction might be expected. But until traders have a better idea of how these markets will react to Trump policies, I think further advances should be approached with caution. Obviously, this latest advance will refresh bullish expectations of $3000.00 gold. But this number may not be in the bag soon if the Fed does not begin to lower interest rates. The fact that they left rates unchanged at their last meeting (January 29th) could easily turn into a cautionary tale even as President Trump demanded lower interest rates. For now, the bulls are happy but let’s not get carried away. An unexpected bump or backfire in Presidential plans could cement higher interest rates in the near term.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Markets Rally Again – “The gold markets rallied a bit in the early hours of Thursday, as the uptrend looks to be firmly entrenched. Technical Analysis – The gold market looks rather strange and strong during the early hours on Thursday, as it looks like we are going to do everything we can to rally during the trading scenario that we find ourselves in on Thursday. The $2800 level above is going to be a major barrier, but if we can break above there, I do think that we get a lot of momentum after that. There would be a lot of FOMO trading. We’ve been building up pressure for a couple of weeks and we are at the top of an uptrend, so I certainly do not wish to get short of the gold market any time soon. If we do pullback from here, it’s likely that we would have buyers at plenty of areas, definitely down at the $2,700 level. But I also think that there would probably be significant buying pressure near $2,750 between here and there. So, I don’t know how deep the correction will actually be. If and when we finally get those fresh new highs, market participants will likely chase gold much higher given enough time, and I think that’s probably just the way this is going to play out. I have no interest in trying to get too cute here. I’m looking for short term dips that I can take advantage of in what has been a strong uptrend, and I don’t see that changing anytime soon.”
On the day gold closed up $53.90 at $2823.00, and silver closed up $1.12 at $32.36.
On Friday the bulls finished the week with a bit of fireworks as gold made fresh new highs, reacting to Trump’s tariffs. I never thought that he would use tariffs. They can be effective in making a short term point. But if you throw communication out the window and ignore business relationships developed over decades the results are unpredictable. You could be faced with an unstable market which is not good for either side.
I still expect $3000.00 gold because this uptrend remains in place and is gathering momentum but the phones across our trading desk remain curiously quiet. It is hard to believe that all this fresh information has failed to encourage either the bulls or the bears.
Reuters (Anmol Choubey) – Gold surges past $2,800 as tariff threats reignite record rally – “Gold prices surpassed the key $2,800 mark for the first time ever on Friday, fueled by a rush to safety on U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats, which heightened concerns about global economic growth and inflationary pressures. Spot gold rose 0.6% to $2,810.66 per ounce by 10:25 a.m. ET (1525 GMT), after hitting a record peak of $2,817.23 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures were little changed at $2,826.40, trading a premium to spot gold rates. “There’s a lot of uncertainty out there right now and also wait-and-see attitude on the geopolitical stage with tariffs,” said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. Trump has set a Saturday deadline to slap a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico and said he was still considering new tariffs on Chinese goods. Bullion, a preferred asset during times of economic and geopolitical turmoil, is on track to record its best monthly performance since March 2024, rising more than 7% so far. The metal surpassed multiple record peaks last year. Additionally, “the mixed signals we’re getting from the Fed and the Trump administration right now is causing uncertainty in the market… Trump wants to cut interest rates, while the Fed wants to hold them steady,” Haberkorn added. Earlier this week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said there would be no rush to cut interest rates again, contradicting Trump’s earlier calls saying he wants borrowing costs to be lowered. U.S. prices increased in December while consumer spending surged, suggesting that the Fed could delay cutting interest rates for some time this year. Among other metals, spot silver fell 0.5% to $31.52 after hitting an over one-month high on Thursday. “We expect this strength in (silver) prices to attract subsequent discretionary trader interest, given this cohort remained nearly flat as of last week, with gold printing new all-time highs and the XAUXAG (gold-to-silver) ratio remaining at elevated levels,” TD Securities said in a note. Platinum firmed 1.2% to $977.85, while palladium rose 1.5% to $1,003.50. All three metals were headed for monthly gains.”
On the day gold closed down $10.50 at $2812.50, and silver closed down $0.23 at $32.13.
Platinum closed up $16.70 at $1033.20, and palladium closed up $62.30 at $1066.90.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, April gold futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending up on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,900.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $2,760.20. First resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of $2,859.50 and then at $2,875.00. First support is seen at $2,822.10 and then at $2,800.00. March silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the December high of $33.33. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $30.00. First resistance is seen at $33.00 and then at $33.33. Next support is seen at $32.50 and then at $32.00.”
Brothers and Sisters, thank you for your friendship. If you have unusual circumstances, need cash or a special favor – talk to Harry or Eric or Ken Slater. We are now back to our traditional business model. Thank you for your patience. Blessings. Richard Schwary
Risk Disclosure – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisors. The precious metal and rare coin markets are random and highly volatile so they may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in the development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.