Commentary for Wednesday, Nov 27, 2024 (www.golddealer.com) – Today gold closed up $19.60 at $2639.90, and silver closed down $0.28 at $30.11. Gold opened strong today reaching $2656.00 as the dollar weakened but traders sold this rally, and while it finished the day mildly in the green it closed at daily lows of $2638.00. This defensive and volatile trading pattern is in reaction to the latest PCI (Personal Consumption Index) data today which suggests inflation continues to rise. The trading conclusion made as we close for the Thanksgiving holiday is that the Federal Reserve might be forced to leave interest rates unchanged next month. Last Friday gold closed at $2709.90 / silver at $31.31. On the week gold was down $73.00, and silver was down $1.20. This is a short week for us as we are closed for Nov 28th and 29th celebrating the Thanksgiving holiday. Wishing you all a great Thanksgiving and a blessed day!
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On Monday the price of gold rose initially, approaching $2690.00 but traders sold this mild rally, and it moved to daily lows approaching $2630.00. The bulls have seriously stumbled early in this week most likely because of increased profit taking. Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “The U.S. general marketplace is more upbeat to start the U.S.-Thanksgiving-holiday-shortened trading week and that’s a negative for the safe-haven metals. There are reports Israel and Hamas may be close to a ceasefire agreement. The better risk appetite is also partly due to President-elect Trump picking hedge fund manager Scott Bessent for Treasury secretary. As one market watcher put it, the U.S. financial system is in “safe hands” with Bessent the head of the U.S. Treasury. Bessent will have a tough new job, as a Wall Street Journal story today is headlined: “Markets shine spotlight on deficits.” That’s one reason U.S. Treasury yields have risen the past several weeks.”
As you can see making assumptions based on either short term interest rates or political seismic shifts because of our new President is not a good idea. I had a friend call me this morning asking for an opinion as to the short term direction of gold. With increasing conflicting data, which continues to “push” and “pull” this trade should we not expect increasing volatility?
In this past month gold has moved from a high of $2785.00 to a low of $2553.00. As of this writing we are trading right around $2620.00, which means a $100.00 swing in the price of gold is becoming a “normal” trade. Now consider that gold has been in an uptrend since March – a technical plus. And bullish sentiment is not falling out of bed because world safe haven demand figures to move higher not lower in 2025. If you mix all these factors together, you are rolling the dice. But I believe traders will be looking for higher prices over the longer term. Think about it, gold and silver bullion will always be a good choice to balance risk in this troubled world.
FXEmpire (Christpher Lewis) – Gold Pulls Back Early on Monday – “The early Monday session has been a little negative for the gold market, as we are looking to consolidate, or even digest a lot of the previous momentum. At this point, the market is going to be looking for “value.” Technical Analysis – The gold market initially did rally a bit during the early hours on Monday, but as you can see, turned around to fall significantly. However, since then we have seen the gold market bounce a bit. So it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out over the longer term. In general, this is a market that’s been in an uptrend for quite some time, so I just don’t see why anything’s going to change here and if that’s going to be the case, then really at this point in time, you are looking at short-term dips as potential buying opportunities. The 50-day EMA could very well end up being support near the $2,645 level. And then after that, you have a pretty significant support level in the form of a trend line and then the $2,500 level. So, I do think it is only a matter of time before you start buying gold. And I certainly don’t have any interest in shorting. Geopolitics continues to make this a bit of a one-way trade over the longer term. And then of course we have the interest rate situation around the world as central banks are doing everything they can to cut rates, while at the same time, profligate spending from various countries around the world continues to support gold. We also have central banks in central and southeastern Asia buying gold and that puts a little bit of a natural bid in the market. With all of these things being said, I like the idea of buying gold, but we had just had five positive days in a row, so a little bit of a pullback does make a certain amount of sense.” Silver Continues to See Volatility – The silver market initially tried to rally a bit during the early hours on Monday, but then gave back the gains, showing signs of hesitation. The market pulling back at this juncture is not a huge surprise as we continue to see a lot of back and forth action and I think the $30 level underneath will be major support. After all, it’s a large round psychologically significant figure, and an area that I think a lot of people will pay attention to via the options market. On the other hand, if we do break out to the upside, breaking above the 50-day EMA on a daily close opens up the possibility of a move to the $33 level. All things being equal, I do think that’s probably more likely than not what happens because the market will eventually get a little bit of knock on effect from the gold market, which although negative on Monday has been very positive as of late, the silver market of course is not only a precious metal, but it’s an industrial metal as well. And with that being said, I think the market is likely to play upon a lot of fiscal concerns for governments around the world, as well as a lot of concerns when it comes to geopolitics. Those aren’t as strong in the silver market, but they are part of the overall picture. As things stand right now, this still looks like a buy on the dips market.”
On the day gold closed down $93.10 at $2616.80, and silver closed down $1.10 at $30.21.
On Tuesday the price of gold continues to work off some of that “froth”, looking for stability while trading between $2610.00 and $2640.00. This short trading week as we approach the Easter holiday and improving US consumer sentiment is reducing tension in this trade. Still, gold managed to finish the day mildly in the green. And gold holding $2600.00 is bullish.
It’s a minor negative for the bulls that after Monday’s $100.00 drop in the price of gold bargain hunting is missing in action, perhaps the result of a rumored solution to the Israel-Hezbollah conflict. Considering the damage both sides have inflicted on each other it is difficult to be optimistic about a cease fire but let’s be hopeful from a humanitarian standpoint.
Reuters (Sherin Elizbeth Varghese) – Gold listless as safe-haven demand faces mixed geopolitical signals – “Gold prices were caught in a tug-of-war on Tuesday, dipping to a week’s low as safe-haven demand softened on optimism over a potential Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, while concern over Ukraine and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff plans limited declines. Spot gold was steady at $2,627.50 per ounce, as of 10:35 a.m. ET (1535 GMT), erasing some of the earlier losses when prices hit its lowest since Nov. 18. U.S. gold futures gained 0.4% to $2,628.00. This follows Monday’s dramatic $100 plunge, when gold retreated from a three-week high. The sell-off was fueled by Israel and Hezbollah ceasefire optimism and further pressured by Trump’s nomination of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, which tempered demand for gold as a safe haven. Concern over the wider fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to remain very high, however, Grant said adding that gold will likely experience choppy consolidation in the near term, ranging between $2,575-$2,750. Gold is traditionally seen as a safe investment during economic and geopolitical uncertainty such as trade wars. Trump’s pledge of big tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China loom large. While they could spark trade wars and bolster gold’s appeal, the resulting inflation risks might tamper Federal Reserve rate cuts, potentially weighing on prices, analysts said. Markets are now focused on Fed November meeting minutes later in the day. With a 56% chance of a December rate cut being priced in, investors remain cautious. “Dovish signals from the Fed may support gold prices, while indications of a potential pause in rate cuts next month could create additional headwinds for bullion,” Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades said in a note. Spot silver rose 0.5% to $30.44 per ounce and palladium gained 1.5% to $987.37. Platinum lost 0.9% to $929.98 with Commerzbank analysts forecasting platinum to hit $1,100 in 2025.”
On the day gold closed up $3.50 at $2620.20, and silver closed up $0.18 at $30.39.
On Wednesday gold was volatile and choppy, trading between $2638.00 and $2656.00, as traders try to get their head around increasing inflation, a ceasefire in the Middle East, and Present Trump promising to use tariffs to create a new world view. Good Grief, Charlie Brown! Even smart money is confused as these new political and geopolitical forces gather speed and the world braces for far reaching changes within its own allies. It makes sense to expect volatile price changes into 2025 as these opposing forces clash and look for opportunity. Still, I see no substitute for the physical possession of real gold and silver bullion in these troubled times.
Reuters (Sherin Elizabeth Varghese – Anushree Ashish Mukherjee) – Gold climbs as dollar eases, investors eye key inflation data – “Gold prices rebounded on Wednesday from a more than one-week low hit in the last session, supported by a softer dollar, even as easing geopolitical tensions, which would typically dampen gold’s safe-haven appeal, failed to curb its momentum. Spot gold jumped 0.7% to $2,651.27 per ounce, as of 09:13 a.m. ET (1413 GMT). U.S. gold futures rose 1.1% to $2,650.30. The rebound followed a dramatic $100 plunge on Monday, marking gold’s sharpest one-day drop in over five months, as safe-haven demand waned following the announcement of a long-negotiated ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah. Prices fell to their lowest level since Nov. 18 in the previous session. “It appears as if the effect of a softer U.S. dollar has been supporting gold prices in today’s session,” said Hamad Hussain, Assistant Climate and Commodities Economist at Capital Economics. The dollar index slipped 0.8%, hitting a 1-week low boosting gold’s appeal for holders of other currencies. “Taking a step back from today’s price movements, greater volatility could be in store for gold prices in the near term ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration and as the situation in the Middle East develops.” U.S. president-elect Donald Trump on Monday pledged to slap tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, the United States’ three largest trading partners, leaving investors cautious. There was uncertainty about the direction of the economy, as noted by Fed officials in the minutes released on Tuesday. Investors are watching closely for core PCE figures due at 1500 GMT. A weekly report on jobless claims showed many laid-off workers are experiencing long bouts of joblessness, keeping the door open to another interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve in December. Markets see a 67% chance of a quarter-point cut in December. The non-yielding bullion tends to shine in a lower-interest-rate environment. Spot silver rose 0.2% to $30.47, platinum added 0.3% to $930.75, and palladium was steady at $977.54.”
On the day gold closed up $19.60 at $2639.90, and silver closed down $0.28 at $30.11.
Platinum closed up $3.60 at $926.90, and palladium closed down $4.40 at $982.80.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, December gold bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at this week’s high of $2,723.20. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,600.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $2,654.80 and then at $2,675.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $2,627.20 and then at this week’s low of $2,605.30. December silver futures bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Bears are working to restart a price downtrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $32.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the November low of $29.75. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $30.75 and then at $31.00. Next support is seen at $30.00 and then at $29.75.”
Brothers and Sisters, thank you for your friendship. If you have unusual circumstances, need cash or a special favor – talk to Harry or Eric or Ken Slater. We are now back to our traditional business model. Thank you for your patience. Blessings. Richard Schwary
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