Commentary for Friday, Feb 21, 2025 – Today gold closed down $2.40 at $2937.60, and silver closed down $0.46 at $32.98. I’m surprised that gold did not break higher turning overhead resistance at $3000.00 into short term support. Traders had all the raw meat they needed including secret deals and Trump reorganization. But it was not in the cards in the very short term. It is anyone’s guess where silver and gold prices will head in the next few weeks. In the longer term my bet is that metals will trend higher, perhaps substantially higher if Trump policies prove to be inflationary. In the meantime, patience is required, not the patience of Job for you biblically minded. Just regular patience because the clock is ticking which should provide a lower dollar and higher inflation, suggesting higher metals prices will become more common in the longer term. Last Friday gold closed at $2883.60 / silver at $32.80. On the week gold was higher by $54.00, and silver was higher by $0.18.
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On Monday we were closed for Presidents Day. Banks and the Post Office were also closed.
On Tuesday the price of gold pushed toward session highs of $2930.00 so we continue with a generally strong market which is subject to its own self-doubt even when gold prices continue to fight for $3000.00 and its technical picture remains strong. There are some who assume higher prices are coming in the near future based solely on the international tension created by President Trump relative to his tariff policies. But more experienced traders realize that what Trump does and how he does it is very nuanced. Investors may see a developing advantage only to find that they misread the Trump tea leaves. An example of this “trading surprise” can be seen last Friday when, really out of the blue gold closed down $42.30 at $2883.60. I think the best shot for now is to expect sudden, but not necessarily dramatic changes in the price of gold and silver. But at the same time, I believe you are seeing just another leg of a large super cycle driven by the dollar.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to See Upward Pressure – “The gold market continues to see a lot of upward pressure, as the uptrend will continue to be a guide for traders, as the market is focusing on tariffs, and of course the idea of the global economy slowing. Technical Analysis – Gold markets continue to look very strong as we are rallying early on Tuesday as traders come back to work in New York. Ultimately, I think this is a scenario where we eventually see this market break out to a fresh new high, and as things stand right now, there’s no real need to get overly concerned about the trend. I think short-term pullbacks probably end up buying opportunities before it’s all said and done, as the trend continues for a multitude of reasons, not the least of which would be inflationary concerns, and of course, uncertainty when it comes to tariffs. Remember, the rest of the world is very focused on what the United States is doing and reciprocal tariffs around the world would actually make for an even playing field, something a lot of economies really can’t handle as efficiently as maybe some of your bigger ones. So it could cause us a bit of chaos, but nonetheless, I do think that’s the route we’re going down and I think the trading public understands that Trump is pretty serious about this. Short-term pullbacks, again, I think, are buying opportunities all the way down to at least the $2,800 level. I think gold’s going to $3,000. In fact, I thought that in the fall of last year, but unfortunately, we went sideways for several months. And although it looks like I’ll be correct, it took us a while to get here. The last couple of months have been rather positive, though, and now we are in a steady as she goes, buy the dip, press higher type of overall market.” Silver Continues to Pressure Upside – The silver market continues to threaten a breakout but also continues to see a lot of overhead resistance. Technical Analysis – The silver market initially fell a bit against the backdrop of US dollar strength but has turned around during the trading session on Tuesday as it looks like we are trying to do everything we can in order to get the market moving to the upside. Keep in mind there is a lot of resistance just above, but it certainly looks as if we are doing everything, we can to go ahead and try to break higher. The Friday candlestick from last week was a bit frightening as it were, considering that we had broken so much higher only to turn around and fail. But the resiliency of the silver market is something that’s capturing my attention at the moment. The $32.35 level continues to be an area of extreme interest. And I do think that short-term pullbacks probably end up being buying opportunities overall. If we do break higher, then you will have to watch the $33.35 level where we pulled back from, but all things being equal. It’s probably worth noting that metals are at least trying to shoot higher. And of course, silver will eventually fall one way or the other along the path of how other metals like gold, palladium and platinum are doing. So, with all of this, we’ve been on an uptrend for a long time. And now I think we’re just pressuring this area, trying to break higher and find enough inertia to finally follow through. I don’t have any interest in shorting silver. And I look at short-term pullbacks as potential buying opportunities.”
On the day gold closed up $48.00 at $2931.60, and silver closed up $0.52 at $33.32.
On Wednesday the price of gold moved to a session high in early trading ($2945.00) but this rally was sold and gold dipped into the red for the day, suggesting a profit taking round closing on session lows of $2920.00. This looks like a cooling in bullish sentiment considering the jump to the upside investors saw yesterday. Still the technical picture and safe haven demand remain strong as gold holds relatively steady at these higher levels. Trump’s aggressive fire breathing will cement safe haven demand for the time being so big downside here would be a surprise.
The bulls must produce a solid close above the magic $3000.00 level to continue the next leg of this amazing run. This may look like a cinch considering the rising bullish sentiment. But emotions and bombast always run high during price transitions, so some caution makes sense. For now, most everyone is looking for $3000.00 but even with this upbeat outcome there should be plenty of work in progress at this point. Consider rearranging your bullion ducks if necessary. Look for a balance between gold and silver bullion. If current fireworks are confusing, you are not alone. Even insiders are having a tough time figuring out Trump’s next move. Still, this market is the most interesting in my career and could become profoundly important in time.
Reuters (Daksh Grover) – Gold marches higher as Trump’s tariff threat boosts demand – “Gold prices rose to a record high on Wednesday on safe-haven demand following U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats, while investors awaited minutes of the Federal Reserve’s January policy meeting later in the day. Spot gold was flat at $2,934.49 an ounce as of 9:39 a.m. ET (1439 GMT) after surging to an all-time high of $2,946.85/oz earlier in the session. Prices scaled a record for the ninth time this year. U.S. gold futures rose 0.1% to $2,952.10. “We are in a state of unusual-heightened uncertainty… the catalyst is the tariffs and trade talks or threats that are going on around the world,” which is supporting the prices, said Paul Wong, market strategist at Sprott Asset Management. The U.S. president said on Tuesday that he intends to impose auto tariffs “in the neighborhood of 25%”, along with similar duties on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports. This follows Trump’s recent move to impose a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum earlier this month. Bullion is seen as a safeguard against geopolitical risks and inflation, but rising interest rates diminish its attractiveness as a non-yielding asset. U.S. Federal Reserve officials remain uncertain about the impact tariffs might have on inflation. Traders currently see at least one 25-basis-point rate cut and a 44% chance of an additional lowering by December, according to LSEG data. Investors will analyze the minutes from the U.S. central bank’s January policy meeting due later in the day, for clues on the Fed’s rate trajectory. Among other metals, spot silver , used in electrical components, shed 0.7% to $32.65 an ounce, which aims to challenge a 10-year high. Platinum declined 1.8% to $970.15, and palladium eased 0.9% to $978.11. “Although the imposition of tariffs could hurt silver’s industrial demand, it could still push higher from a valuation perspective,” said Han Tan, Exinity Group chief market analyst.”
On the day gold closed down $12.20 at $2919.40, and silver closed down $0.33 at $32.99.
On Thursday the price of gold again challenged $3000.00, approaching $2955.00 before moving to session lows of $2925.00 and finally bouncing higher, finishing nicely in the green for the trading day. This “back and forth” pricing action is typical as traders test overhead resistance and ready themselves for what many believe will be record high prices this year. I believe the reason we have not seen the magic $3000.00 close with some authority with President Trump threatening sweeping changes is that these higher interest rates are not moving lower as we have seen by yesterday’s FOMC decision to leave rates unchanged. Today’s higher prices in gold are helped by a weaker dollar as the Dollar Index has lost almost a full point since Wednesday’s high. This market may be looking at an important pivot, one in which folks will favor physical bullion gold. This is the dynamic which produced record high prices in the first place, and it looks like its popularity will again encourage safe haven demand in an uncertain world.
Reuters (Anmol Choubey) – Gold prices catapult to record high on safe-haven demand – “Gold prices surged to a record high on Thursday, as fears of a global trade war sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats fueled safe-haven demand for the precious metal. Spot gold was steady at $2,930.19 an ounce, as of 9:17 a.m. ET (1417 GMT) after hitting $2,954.69 earlier in the session, its tenth record high this year. U.S. gold futures gained 0.4% to $2,946.90. Gold, a safe-haven in times of uncertainty, has gained 12% so far this year. Trump said on Wednesday he would announce tariffs related to lumber, cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals “over the next month or sooner”. Since taking office on January 20, Trump has imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum. “We continue to see central bank buying … throughout the year. That’s one of the main underlying factors of support. We are also seeing ETF flows with three straight days of flows into the gold market,” said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures. Trump also denounced Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy as a dictator on Wednesday and told him he had to move quickly to secure peace or risk losing his country. A potential peace deal may briefly lower geopolitical tensions and could weigh on gold for short term, said Grant, adding, “the all-time high could hold for a number of weeks as there are sufficient fundamental factors that remain very supportive.” Elsewhere, minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting on Wednesday showed Trump’s initial policy proposals had stoked concerns over rising inflation, reinforcing the central bank’s stance to hold off on further rate cuts. Gold exports from Switzerland rose year-on-year in January as supplies to the U.S. soared to the highest in at least 13 years, Swiss customs data showed. Spot silver added 0.6% to $32.92 an ounce. Platinum rose 0.3% to $974.70, while palladium advanced 1.4% to $981.75.”
On the day gold closed up $20.60 at $2940.00, and silver closed up $0.45 at $33.44.
On Friday gold prices reached a high of $2940.00 then dipped to session lows of $2915.00 so as usual this market is presenting some pricing volatility. The big plus today for bullish sentiment is simply that by the close gold had clawed its way back to session highs. This is a semi-big deal just because traders pushed the bullish envelope even into an uncertain weekend.
It’s no secret that bullion investors favor higher prices in the longer term. But I don’t see a rocket ship ascent for the price of gold or silver bullion for several reasons. Investors have inherited a generally stronger dollar for the time being. You could make the case that it is still overpriced, which is my position, and if so, record prices for gold are not in the making anytime soon.
What makes this market confusing is the Trump factor. Suppose President Trump is right, and his grand scheme makes America more efficient strengthening the dollar. It would not be the first time he has accomplished the nearly impossible. I suppose that just owning gold and silver bullion makes good sense but taking a bottle of aspirin might make for a less bumpy ride.
Reuters (Anjana Anil and Sarah Qureshi) – Gold consolidates after record run, set for eighth weekly gain – “Gold prices fell on Friday but were set for an eighth straight week of gains on the back of two consecutive record highs, as safe-haven demand remained strong amid concerns about U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff plans. Spot gold shed 0.4% to $2,927.95 an ounce by 1204 GMT. Bullion has gained around 1.6% this week after rising to a record $2,954.69 on Thursday. U.S. gold futures fell 0.5% to $2,941.70. “The non-stop rally since December remains unchallenged unless prices drop to around $2,850,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. Prices have shattered two record highs this week to trade above $2,950/oz, as uncertainties surrounding global economic growth and political instability have underscored investor appetite for bullion, which has risen 11.5% so far in 2025.
Trump’s fresh bout of tariff plans announced earlier this week includes duties on lumber and forest products, on top of previously announced plans to impose duties on imported cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. This comes after the imposition of an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports and a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum. “Gold has been displaying resilience with short-lived retracements, as lingering U.S. trade uncertainties reinforce its appeal as a hedge,” IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong said. Market participants are also looking out for clues on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory, in the light of Trump’s policies being seen as inflationary. Higher inflation may force the Fed to keep interest rates elevated, which in turn dampens non-yielding gold’s appeal. Elsewhere, physical gold demand among top consumers China and India remained negligible due to record high prices. Spot silver was flat at $32.92 an ounce, and palladium dipped 0.3% to $974.75. Both metals were headed for weekly gains. Platinum shed 0.2% to $976.80 and eyed a weekly decline.”
On the day gold closed down $2.40 at $2937.60, and silver closed down $0.46 at $32.98.
Platinum closed down $9.50 at $978.30, and palladium closed down $16.80 at $988.10.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, April gold futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending up on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $3,000.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,850.00. First resistance is seen at the contract/record high of $2,973.40 and then at $2,985.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $2,930.10 and then at $2,900.00. March silver futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the February high of $34.24. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at last week’s low of $31.65. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $33.785 and then at $34.00. Next support is seen at $33.00 and then at this week’s low of $32.46.”
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