Commentary for Friday, April 11, 2025 (www.golddealer.com) – Today gold closed up $67.00 at $3222.20, and silver closed up $1.15 at $31.82. If you are a bull, you must love today’s Reuters headline – Gold soars past $3,200 as trade war deepens, dollar loses ground. The amazing part of this developing story is that even cautious traders, looking for a pull-back, believe you will see new records before the end of 2025. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey today suggests that people expect higher inflation and recession, the main reasons behind these record numbers. Powell has done a great job at tapping the inflation brakes. It appears likely the US “tariffs and all” will come out of this latest maelstrom unscathed. Even while Trump raised tariffs on China to 125%. And China raised tariffs on the US an equal amount, creating worldwide confusion. Last Friday gold closed at $3012.00 / silver at $29.12. On the week gold was higher by $210.20, and silver was higher by $2.70.
Please note that FedEx is no longer asking for delivery signatures. They are scanning IDs. We have complained to FedEx, but they remain resolute. Scanned identification is safer, but if you have a problem with this decision, please make your feelings known to FedEx. Unfortunately, the present delivery time for the USPS alternative is 2-3 weeks.
Should you decide to use our Delayed Delivery Program please talk with your service rep and understand how this program works. It is handy if you want to lock in the price “now” and insist on a new product – but is not for everyone. Just like us – you must pay upfront to “lock in” prices and you can’t “change” your mind. So, unless God has blessed you with patience, please ask your rep for other options and thank you for understanding.
On Monday the price of gold was choppy to lower as this market continued to struggle, again testing support around $3000.00. Considering gold lost $85.00 on Friday I was hoping for perhaps a bounce to the upside but no dice. Unfortunately, gold lost another $60.00 today, so the slide continues. This lack of conviction coupled with a less positive technical outlook makes me somewhat nervous. The smart money will at least consider their options using current gold and silver pricing in case today’s hiccup turns into something more ominous.
While gold bullion looks tired it continues to be the safe haven asset of choice as Trump beats the tariff drum. Insiders do not see a great deal of downside here because inflation continues to be troublesome. Interest rates will move lower over time further supporting bullish sentiment. The volume across our trading desk has not slowed much today, but the phones are not exactly ringing off the hook. It looks like the public is still interested in kicking the tires.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Plunges But Finds Buyers – “The gold market continues to see a lot of forced selling, as traders are trying to cover the overleveraged positions they chose to open in other markets. This being the case, gold will continue to be noisy, as traders have to take this into account, while recognizing that gold is a “safety asset” as well. Technical Analysis – Gold markets initially plunged at the open on Monday again as traders are trying to do everything they can to raise cash for margin calls. That being said, it does look like the $3,000 level offered enough support to get people interested in this market yet again. Ultimately, I think you have a situation where traders will watch this area very closely. And from a technical standpoint, it does make a lot of sense that we would find buyers on dips. All things being equal, I do believe that gold continues its longer term uptrend, but I also recognize that currently, traders continue to sell anything they have gains in, to cover their losses elsewhere. This is common during financial crises, and something that I have seen multiple times in the past. That being said, there are still a lot of concerns when it comes to the overall global economy and tariffs. And that of course has a major influence on people running for shelter. Gold of course is considered to be a safety asset and given enough time we will return to that situation. Because of this, I believe that the market has shown itself to offer value for traders who are willing to step in and pick up cheap ounces of gold going forward. The bullish flag measured move of $3,300 is very possible and I believe likely. Silver Continues to See Volatile Moves – The silver market has been very noisy in the early hours of Monday, as traders continue to freak out about the global tariffs and find themselves being forced to sell profitable positions to protect portfolios. Technical Analysis – Silver has been all over the place in early trading on Monday as we tested the crucial $28.75 level, only to turn around and bounce quite massively. That being said, I think you’ve got a situation where traders will have to pay close attention to what they are doing. And with that being the case, I do believe that we may be getting close to a potential bottom in what’s going on at least with precious metals. After all, precious metal selling off in a time of fear is generally thought of as a way to raise cash for margin calls, it may not be really anything more than that. And given enough time, I think we’ve got a situation where it’s interesting that we did rally all the way to the 200 day EMA, only to pull back. Ultimately, I think you’ve got a situation where traders will continue to look at this through the prism of a market that is still somewhat volatile. But I think it’s also a market that has fallen so quickly, and in such short order, that sooner or later, it has to bounce, as markets don’t go in one direction forever. And I think that might be part of what you are starting to see on Monday. If we were to break down below the $28.50 level, then it’s possible that we could drop to $27, maybe even $26. But keep in mind that silver is an extraordinarily volatile contract under the best of circumstances, and right now, things are an absolute mess. So be very cautious with this market. Make sure that you don’t overleverage yourself and, of course, be quick to play stops and take profit.”
On the day gold closed down $60.70 at $2951.30, and silver closed up $0.39 at $2951.
On Tuesday the price of gold was again unpredictable, reversing yesterday’s big loss and moving to $3020.00 before turning choppy and finishing the day in the green. Now add the big bullish plus that today’s aftermarket was up another $15.00.There are several fresh reasons for such bullish action. First, the talk of an interest rate cut soon is gaining momentum. Second, the technical experts believe this bearish trend is exhausted because traders stepped up to buy weakness. Finally, there is the talk that Trump’s tariffs will end with a collapse in world trade. I understand this apprehension, but it is an overreaction. The better reason for gold and silver bullion to establish fresh record highs this year remains safe haven demand, count on it.
Reuters (Brijesh Patel) – Gold rebounds above $3,000/oz as trade war fears, weaker dollar support – “Gold prices rose back above $3,000 per ounce on Tuesday as a weaker U.S. dollar and escalating trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies lifted demand for the safe-haven asset. Spot gold was up 0.8% at $3,007.21 an ounce by 08:44 a.m. ET (1244 GMT), moving away from a more than three-week low touched on Monday in a pullback from last week’s record high of $3,167.57. U.S. gold futures gained 1.6% to $3,021.90. “Despite falling for three consecutive sessions, gold remains bullish with trade tensions and the prospect of lower U.S. interest rates boosting its allure,” said Lukman Otunuga, senior research analyst at FXTM. “A solid breakout above $3,055 may open the doors back toward $3,100 and $3,130. Sustained weakness below $3,000 could see gold slip toward $2,950 and $2,930.” Concerns over a global trade war since U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs on April 2 have raised fears of a recession and prompted investors to take refuge in the safe-haven assets like gold. China has refused to bow to what it called “blackmail” from the U.S. as a global trade war ignited by Trump’s sweeping tariffs showed little sign of abating. Gold, often used as a safe store of value during times of political and financial uncertainty, has risen 15% so far this year.
Further helping gold, the dollar index fell against its rivals, making bullion less expensive for other currency holders. Investors are looking forward to minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting due on Wednesday for more clues on the path of rate cuts. Traders are pricing in about 40% chance of a Fed cut in May. Zero-yield bullion tends to thrive in a low interest rate environment. “The significant rise in rate cut expectations in recent days suggests that the gold price will soon rise again,” Commerzbank said in a note. Elsewhere, spot silver gained 0.4% to $30.23 an ounce, platinum rose 1.3% to $925.33, and palladium eased 0.5% to $914.18.”
On the day gold closed up $17.10 at $2968.40, and silver closed up $0.08 at $29.59.
On Wednesday the price of gold soared, up $88.10, challenging $3100.00 in early trade, driven by international tensions, a weaker dollar and safe haven demand. The Dollar Index has lost 1½ points this week, a substantial dip, and tariff woes are again stoking inflation fears. Today’s article in Barrons underpins higher prices in gold “Trump tariffs rock Treasures.” This bullish turnaround is even more noteworthy if you consider the $60.70 drop in gold price on Monday of this week. At that time the smart money expected continued weakness.
For the record, however, today’s close ($3056.50) is not gold’s all-time high. That high water mark was recently hit on April 3rd, coming in at $3167.00. For now, we are about 2.5% below all-time highs. If international tension continues to escalate, however, I would not be surprised to see fresh record highs in a week or two. Across our trading desk this morning I checked our Purchase Order position. It is curious that investors at least in the physical market are not selling. Which might suggest that even higher prices are at least in their early, formative stages.
Reuters (Brijesh Patel) – Gold climbs more than 2% as tariff war heats up, dollar dips – “Gold prices gained more than 2% on Wednesday, supported by a decline in the dollar and safe-haven inflows amid escalating U.S.-China trade tensions after Beijing announced more levies on U.S. goods. Spot gold was up 2.2% at $3,048.19 an ounce, as of 09:01 a.m. ET (1301 GMT). U.S. gold futures rose 2.5% to $3,065.40. “Ultimately gold continues to be seen as a hedge against instability here. We got a situation where tariffs are becoming a big problem, and you have inflationary expectations going higher, and that’s manifested by higher yields,” said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities. “As this trade situation continues to be a problem, I think over time people may be betting that the US dollar becomes less prevalent in global trade,” Melek added. The dollar index slipped 1% against its rivals, making gold more attractive for other currency holders. China would impose additional tariffs of 84% on all U.S. goods from April 10, up from the 34% previously announced, China’s finance ministry said, retaliating to President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs that took effect earlier in the day. Investors who are worried that tariffs would stoke inflation and hinder economic growth dumped stocks, industrial commodities and took refuge in gold. Gold, used as a safe investment during times of political and financial uncertainty, has risen more than $400 in 2025 and hit a record high of $3,167.57 on April 3, owing to strong safe-haven demand and central bank buying. Investors await the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting later in the day for more clarity on the rate cut path. Also on the radar, the U.S. consumer price index is due on Thursday. Traders are pricing in a 55% chance of a Fed rate cut in May, according to the CME Fedwatch Tool. Zero-yield bullion tends to thrive in a low interest rate environment. Elsewhere, silver gained 1.4% to $30.26 an ounce, platinum slipped 0.6% to $915.59, and palladium fell 1.1% to $897.14.”
On the day gold closed up $88.10 at $3056.50, and silver closed up $0.73 at $30.32.
On Thursday the price of gold again surged higher ($3150.00), driven by confusion over changing Trump tariff policies and continued safe haven demand. This has been the consistent theme this week, which is extraordinary considering the huge drop to the downside gold took on Monday. And considering the very bullish last two days, you may be seeing the beginning of new record prices this year. On the other hand, now may be a good time to consider turning some of your bullion into cash, which is a good idea to avoid possible liquidity problems in the future. I can’t say however that the public is selling much gold or silver even at these lofty levels. As for me personally, I continue to buy small amounts on reasonable price weakness. Which makes sense because in the much longer term the metals will almost certainly be a value play. I also like platinum, palladium and rhodium if you can find them at reasonable prices. There is virtually no downside here and in the very long term this could be the best value play of all.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to See Strength – “The gold market continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, but at the end of the day, the market probably sees more of a “buy on the dips” attitude in this asset. Gold remains attractive to most traders at this time from what I see. Technical Analysis – The gold markets have gapped higher to kick off the Thursday session and then ran much higher as we continue to see a lot of questions asked about the global economy. Despite the fact that we had the tariff announcement during the trading session on Wednesday where the US would pause tariffs for 90 days, the reality is that gold had been in a long-term uptrend to begin with, and now that the stock market rallied a bit, gold rallied as well because the forced liquidation of hedge funds who had massive losses elsewhere in the gold market seems to have ended. If that’s of course the case, then it’s likely that the market could continue running toward the $3,200 level. But I’d like to see a little bit of a pullback because, quite frankly, if you are not already long in this market, you don’t really want to chase this type of move if you can avoid it, as there will be a pullback. Using the bullish flag that we formed a couple of weeks ago, it does suggest that we are going to get to the $3,300 level. And I think that’s a reasonable expectation considering how the markets have behaved. It’s also worth noting that the $3,000 level offered support as well as the 50 day EMA. Ultimately, this is a market that I think will continue to outperform most others. It has been a good year, year and a half now, and I don’t think it will change anytime soon. Silver Continues to Look for Momentum – The silver market continues to see a lot of noisy trading, but it is hanging around the crucial 200 Day EMA, and therefore it is likely that we will continue to see a lot of noise in this area, as industrial demand might get a bid due to tariffs being paused for 90 days. Technical Analysis – The silver market has gone back and forth during the trading session here in the early hours of Thursday. This is interesting, considering that we are sitting right around the 200-day EMA. The $31 level looks to be a region that a lot of people will be paying attention to and if we can break above there, it would be a very positive sign. We did gap higher to kick off the trading session. And that, of course, is a bullish sign as well. But quite frankly, we still have a lot of repairing to do as far as the market is concerned because we got absolutely slammed for several days in a row, and now we’re trying to creep our way back to the upside. With the pause on tariffs being at least 90 days, that does help silver in the sense that silver is an industrial metal. It’s not just a precious one, so that comes into the picture as well. Ultimately, this is a market that I think could be a bit noisy in the short term, but I think it becomes more or less a buy on the dip scenario, at least until something changes quite drastically. The $30 level should offer support right along with the $28 level. But all things being equal, the market is certainly going to be noisy, and you need to protect yourself by keeping your position size reasonable. We are in the midst of trying to form that bottom to continue the overall uptrend. If we start seeing tariff agreements between the United States and multiple countries, that will probably be like rocket fuel for silver.”
On the day gold closed up $98.70 at $3155.20, and silver closed up $0.35 at $30.67.
On Friday the price of gold soared as the Dollar Index lost more than 2 points in 5 trading days. I think the dollar must be oversold at this point so expect a bounce to the upside which should cool down gold prices going into the weekend. But it is tough to find even one analyst who does not look for fresh record high prices. I would feel better if prices did cool as the past few weeks have been too frenetic (fast and energetic in a wild and uncontrolled way). Still, enjoy the ride – the store was busy today and the parking lot sometimes crowded. Which figures with gold being up several hundred dollars this week. Thanks for reading and have a great week.
Reuters (Anjana Anil) – Gold soars past $3,200 as trade war deepens, dollar loses ground – “Gold blazed past the $3,200 mark on Friday, as a faltering dollar and an escalating U.S.-China trade war stirred recession fears, sending investors flocking to the safety of the yellow metal. Spot gold was up 1.8% at $3,230.75 an ounce at 9:30 a.m. ET (1330 GMT), after hitting a record high of $3,237.56 earlier in the session. Bullion is up over 6% this week. U.S. gold futures climbed 1.8% to $3,234.90. “Gold is clearly seen as the favored safe-haven asset in a world upended by Trump’s trade war. The U.S. dollar has depreciated, and U.S. Treasuries are selling off hard, as faith in the U.S. as a reliable trading partner has diminished,” said Nitesh Shah, commodities strategist at WisdomTree. China increased its tariffs on U.S. imports to 125% on Friday, raising the stakes in a confrontation between the world’s two largest economies. The dollar fell against its peers, making greenback-priced bullion cheaper for overseas buyers. A combination of central bank buying, U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, geopolitical instabilities and a surge of investor flows into gold-backed ETFs has also supported gold’s rally this year. U.S. monthly producer prices unexpectedly fell 0.4% in March, but tariffs on imports are expected to drive inflation higher in the coming months. Traders now bet that the Fed will resume cutting rates in June and see around 90 basis points worth of cuts by the end of 2025. “A minor correction (for gold) wouldn’t surprise, but the path forward is up and away as CPI and PPI gives the Fed more room to cut and will keep downward pressure on the dollar,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader. Non-yielding gold, a traditional hedge against global uncertainties and inflation, also tends to thrive in a low interest rate environment. But certain developments could cap gold’s rise, UBS analysts said in a note, including “easing geopolitical tensions, a return to more cooperative trade relations, or a significant improvement in the U.S. macro and fiscal backdrop.” Spot silver gained 1.4% to $31.64 an ounce, while platinum added 0.4% to $941.90. Palladium advanced 1.3% to $919.25.”
On the day gold closed up $67.00 at $3222.20, and silver closed up $1.15 at $31.82.
Platinum closed up $11.90 at $934.30, and palladium closed .
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, June gold futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $3,300.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $3,100.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight contract high of $3,255.90 and then at $3,275.00. First support is seen at $3,200.00 and then at $3,160.00. May silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. This week’s price action suggests the bears became exhausted and that a near-term price bottom is in place. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $33.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $29.50. First resistance is seen at $31.75 and then at $32.00. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $30.865 and then at Thursday’s low of $30.51.”
Brothers and Sisters, thank you for your friendship. If you have unusual circumstances, need cash or a special favor – talk to Harry or Eric or Ken Slater. We are now back to our traditional business model. Thank you for your patience. Blessings. Richard Schwary
Risk Disclosure – The content in this newsletter and on the GoldDealer.com website is provided for informational purposes only and our employees are not registered financial advisors. The precious metal and rare coin markets are random and highly volatile so they may not be suitable for some individuals. We suggest before deciding on a course of action that you talk with an independent financial professional. While due care has been exercised in the development and dissemination of our web site, the Almost Famous Gold Newsletter, or other promotional material, there is no guarantee of correctness so this corporation and its employees shall be held harmless in all cases. GoldDealer.com (California Numismatic Investments, Inc.) and its employees do not render legal, tax, or investment advice.